Best-Case 2022 Midterms Scenario Revealed for Democrats

A file image of voters filling out and casting their ballots at the Cross Insurance Center polling location in Bangor, Maine for the 2020 presidential election on Nov. 3. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images)

A top election forecaster predicted Friday that the Democrats’ best chance of maintaining control of the Senate is a 50–50 tie, which is the current setup.

Currently, Democrats have a majority over Republicans in the 50–50 Senate. Vice President Kamala Harris serves as a tie-breaker for Democrats.

“Our final Senate outlook shows Republicans with late momentum. Our most probable range is now D+0 to R+3 pickups. Dems’ best shot to hold the majority is to stay 50-50. Republicans could get to 52 seats, or 53 in a huge wave,” Cook Political Report editor Jessica Taylor wrote.

But Taylor noted in a report that “a handful of races remain incredibly tight, and polls show they could go either way,” although the “far better national environment for Republicans has many Democratic strategists we have talked to staring down a gloomy prospect” for Tuesday’s election.

“Several have wished this election could have been held even a month ago, but it appears Republicans could be peaking at the right time,” she continued. “More traditional midterm expectations seem to have again taken hold, which is never good news for the president’s party.”

Democrats, Cook suggested, peaked too early. Following the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe v. Wade in June, Democrats and mainstream media outlets launched an all-out blitz to target voters with pro-abortion rhetoric.

Republicans, meanwhile, have focused on inflation, crime, and the state of the U.S. economy.

“While Democrats saw momentum swing in their favor this summer on abortion following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, the economy, inflation and crime are now driving a dour environment across the board,” Taylor wrote. “While Republicans are still beset by many weak nominees that have been bailed out on air by superPACs, it appears that the climate may end up winning out over candidate quality. As such, we are changing our range of most likely outcomes.”

But Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is confident that Democrats will retain control of the upper chamber and might even acquire more seats.

“It’s tight,” Schumer told The Associated Press. “I believe Democrats will hold the Senate and maybe even pick up seats.”

“I don’t want to give the illusion that these are all slam dunks,” Schumer said while commenting on the Senate races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Arizona.

Because, Schumer added, Democrats are “the ballpark and our Democratic candidates are defying the political environment is a testament to a few things. He then accused the Republican Senate candidates are “extreme.”

The midterms will be held Tuesday, Nov. 8. The United States Election Project, which compiles voting data from states, reports that more than 35 million people have voted so far as of Friday.