What’s the most important policy area for cities to get right? Judging from urbanist publications and conferences, the answer varies: sustainability, livable streets, resiliency, affordable housing, economic development, and income equality, among others. Public safety—the largest part of many municipal budgets—is rarely mentioned. In fact, articles about crime tend to be critical of the police and policing strategies. Yet public safety is local government’s most important function. Without it, nothing else a city does matters.
Without safe streets, people move out and investors flee. When crime is rampant, every person and every business is affected, even if not directly. “I hear gunshots and police sirens every night,” Indianapolis resident Bianca Tucker told the Indianapolis Star. “I’ve taught my kids how to roll out of bed and get underneath it when it starts happening.”
The stunning 85 percent decline in homicide in New York since 1990 is often dismissed as the product of a nationwide downward trend. But as William J. Bratton and George L. Kelling note, New York’s murder-rate decline vastly outstripped the nation’s, with New York’s share of nationwide murders falling from 7.9 percent to 2.4 percent. Last year, New York had 328 murders in a population of 8.4 million. By contrast, Indianapolis had 135 murders in a population of about 900,000 and Chicago 424 murders in a population of 2.7 million.
Critics have offered various explanations for New York’s success, ranging from legalized abortion to the ban on leaded gasoline. But New York’s achievement was no accident. When the city was still in the grasp of horrifically high crime, the NYPD articulated its theory of change: Broken Windows policing. The NYPD said in advance that the strategy would reduce crime, and then it put Broken Windows into practice, along with related strategies, ranging from data-driven policing (Compstat) to (years later) social-media monitoring. Crime plummeted, even as total incarceration declined. NYPD commissioner William Bratton went on to repeat the feat in Los Angeles, while rebuilding the LAPD’s terrible relationship with the community. In any other context, these would be considered triumphs of government effectiveness.
