The conventional take on the Eastern Conference playoff picture, bolstered by the struggles of everyone below them, is that the Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorites to make the conference finals.
A critical caveat exists, though. The Hawks have been dominant most of the season, and the Cavaliers have been explosive since the trades and the return of LeBron James, but both teams suffer from a lack of playoff experience.
James has plenty, but his fellow starters have little. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving have never played in a playoff game. Timofey Mozgov has played in one series, which he lost. J.R. Smith has made the playoffs seven years running but has won only three series.
The Atlanta Hawks are a little better off overall, but they still don’t have a proven postseason winner that has even tasted the NBA finals let alone winning a championship. (Austin Daye doesn’t count.) Out of the starting lineup, only Kyle Korver has made it past the second round.
Yes, LeBron has won two championships and made the finals the last four seasons. David Blatt loves to trumpet his international pedigree and won’t shy from big games. Irving has delivered under pressure before, and the Cavs look unstoppable right now. Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer was assistant coach on the Spurs while they won four championships, and the starters have all been to the playoffs multiple times.
The introduction was just to point out that the Hawks and Cavs aren’t automatically guaranteed entry into the conference finals. (In this scenario, many assume the Cavs win the series.) Every other team in the East has struggled in significant parts of the season, but things can easily change come playoff time.
Playoff positioning has been shifting almost every day and will keep doing so for the next couple of weeks. Both the Hawks and Cavs could face the following teams in the first round: the Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets.
