What’s Really Behind Central America’s Sky-High Murder Rates?

Gang violence continued to worsen last year in the three countries that make up Central America’s so-called Northern Triangle—Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.

A police squad patrols during an operation in Los Alpes, southern outskirts of Tegucigalpa, Honduras, on Sept. 29, 2015. Orlando Sierra/AFP/Getty Images

Gang violence continued to worsen last year in the three countries that make up Central America’s so-called Northern Triangle—Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. According to police data, these countries collectively saw 17,422 murders in 2015, 11 percent more than in 2014. However, there are signs that security challenges are changing, both in the Northern Triangle and across Central America as a whole.

The homicide rate in El Salvador increased by 67 percent between 2014 and 2015: its 6,657 annual murders equate to around 103 per 100,000 inhabitants. This is among the highest in the world, and higher even than Honduras, which has had the highest homicide rate in the region for years. Indeed, the 2014 murder rate in Honduras fell from 68 to 57 per 100,000 people.

Guatemala’s murder rate was relatively stable, at 30 per 100,000 in 2015 compared to 38 per 100,000 in 2014—but in the other two countries, the data suggests that the focus of the violence has been shifting.

A Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) gang member at the prison of Ciudad Barrios, 100 miles east of San Salvador, El Salvador, on June 19, 2012. Jose Cabezas/AFP/GettyImages