Monday’s Iowa caucuses will provide the first real-voters, real-results test for Republican presidential candidates. By the polling data, the result would seem easy to predict.
President Donald Trump has led the field by a commanding margin, garnering the support of about 50 percent of likely caucusgoers for months.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley edged ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis this week, but both have hovered in the mid-teens for weeks. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is locked in single digits.
Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Mason City, Iowa on Jan. 5, 2024. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Yet Hawkeye voters have been known to deliver caucus-night surprises that boost one campaign and tank another. And though interest in this race is high, sub-zero temperatures on caucus night could depress voter turnout.
Here’s what’s at stake for each candidate in this contest.
Must Win: Trump
Trump must win the Iowa caucuses by a convincing margin to maintain the aura of invincibility he has enjoyed so far. He’s been campaigning like an unopposed incumbent and making hay with his base over his multiple criminal prosecutions, which he’s casting as politically motivated.Anything less than a 30-point victory could count as a crack in the armor. A single-digit victory—or a loss—would be a five-alarm fire.
To guard against that, Trump has mobilized a get-out-the-vote operation worthy of a veteran campaigner, which he is.
The campaign has enlisted some 2,000 precinct captains who commit to bringing at least 10 people with them on caucus night.
Volunteers have also collected more than 50,000 “commit-to-caucus” cards, non-binding declarations of a voter’s intent to support President Trump in the caucuses.
Trump himself is making an appeal for voters to show up on caucus night during his rallies. “Forget polls that show we’re 35 points up,” he told supporters in Mason City on Jan. 7. “Pretend we’re one point down.”
Must Place: DeSantis
DeSantis has been endorsed by Iowa’s popular governor, Kim Reynolds, and by evangelical powerhouse Bob Vander Plaats, CEO of The Family Leader.Vander Plaats has had the magic touch in previous caucuses, endorsing former winners Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz.
DeSantis is confident of a good turnout for the caucuses despite the freezing cold. “Monday the story is organization, organization, organization,” he said in an interview with Sean Hannity on Jan. 11. “I think we’ve done it right. And I’m looking forward to being able to take that through.”
Vander Plaats told rallygoers on Jan. 11 that DeSantis would “shock the nation, shock the world,” just as his other picks did. However, none of them went on from Iowa to claim the GOP nomination.
DeSantis has spent more time in Iowa than either Trump or Haley and has visited each of the state’s 99 counties. He has campaigned here even more aggressively over the past two weeks, normally holding four campaign events a day.
That effort hasn’t translated into a surge in the polls though. That does not concern DeSantis, who has said the polls are misleading.
DeSantis must claim a decisive second place to show that he remains competitive with Trump. Cutting Trump’s 35-point lead by half or more might be as good as a win.
Placing third behind Trump and Haley would likely spell trouble for his campaign, especially since she polls well ahead of him in the next state to vote, New Hampshire.
Little to Lose: Haley
The South Carolinian has gradually gained momentum in Iowa while polling for other candidates has been relatively flat. She’s not exactly riding Haley’s Comet through the Iowa skies, but she’s gaining.Part of that is due to an influx of cash beginning with a major endorsement in the fall. Americans for Prosperity (AFP) tapped Haley in November and has conducted door-to-door operations for Ms. Haley in Iowa, aiming to reach 200,000 homes before the caucuses. The PAC is funded by conservative megadonors Charles Koch and the late David Koch.
Haley has also spent more on TV ads in Iowa than any other candidate. Her campaign and its supporting PACs have spent $4.6 million ahead of the caucuses, according to AdImpact.
Haley’s rallies tend to draw suburbanites who have grown weary of Trump and disaffected Republicans, with whom her pitch to move away from the “chaos” of the last few years gains traction.
Observers believe she’ll benefit from the withdrawal from the race this week of vocal Trump critic Chris Christie, though the former New Jersey governor was not terribly popular in Iowa.
If Haley places well ahead of DeSantis, the race is likely to become a battle between her and Trump. If she stays neck-and-neck with DeSantis, Haley can claim a good result and head for New Hampshire where she’s surging.
Must Breakout: Ramaswamy
Ramaswamy must poll well ahead of his 6 percent poll number to remain viable. The energetic entrepreneur has expended gobs of energy here, visiting all 99 counties twice in the last 10 months but never rising in the polls. He needs to break out of single digits.The 38-year-old entrepreneur discontinued television advertising in the state in December 2023, citing their lack of effectiveness. Instead, the campaign has turned to a data-driven approach to reach the candidate’s core constituents.
Like DeSantis, the Ramaswamy campaign maintains that the polls don’t accurately reflect his position in the race. The 38-year-old has broad appeal to younger people, first-time voters, and non-traditional Republicans.
Based on the size and composition of the crowds at Ramaswamy’s rallies, Tricia McLaughlin, communications director for the Ramaswamy campaign, predicted an outsized result on Jan. 15.
“We’re getting people who are not your traditional caucusgoers who get polled,” she said. “If we can get those people out ... I think he really has a chance to shock the world, maybe even win the Iowa caucus.”
While that seems highly unlikely, pulling significantly more than 6 percent of the vote might be considered a positive result.
The Iowa caucuses begin at 7 p.m. CT on Monday in each of the state’s 728 caucus sites.
