The excitement about a potentially rain-bearing El Niño is building, and hopes for a swift end to California’s ongoing drought are multiplying. At the same time, many of us who have worked extensively on water issues in the state fear the momentum and progress made on much-needed water reforms will be lost.
The prospect of a rainy year raises the question: What would it take for the drought to be over? The answer to that question turns out to be more complex than it might seem.
Defining Drought
It is common to think of drought as a lack of precipitation, but there are many ways to look at drought. For example, from a physical standpoint, researchers might use soil moisture indicators and are increasingly using temperature as well. However, these measures don’t directly address the social and economic aspects of drought.
To that end, the National Drought Mitigation Center has a helpful guide that identifies four kinds of drought: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socioeconomic. This lens helps to explain the widespread impacts of California’s current drought, where we have been experiencing all four kinds simultaneously for several years. We have reduced precipitation and streamflows, irrigation water cutbacks and communities without running water. From this perspective, it becomes clear that increased precipitation alone will not signal an end to the drought.
