The 2015 year in crime was marked by a sharp rise in murder rates in many U.S. cities, including those touched by high-profile incidents between police and citizens, such as Baltimore and Chicago.
But the rate of crime overall in America’s largest cities declined in 2015 (as of Dec. 23) compared to the year before, to a level half of what it was in 1990.
This contrast, while not abnormal, has criminologists split on its significance heading into a new year, when attention to police-community interactions, and the broader criminal justice system, promises to be especially intense.
Many in Congress are hoping early this year to act on legislation to reduce prison sentences for nonviolent drug offenders.
“The policy takeaway is that there is not a national crime or murder wave, so if people are still pursuing criminal justice reforms, they should be able to do so without thinking there is evidence of a debilitating crime wave,” said Inimai Chettiar, referencing a report she oversaw conducted by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law.
In October testimony to Congress, however, FBI Director James Comey urged caution after the increase in murders.
“This is worrisome,” Comey said, “and it drives us to be even more thoughtful about how we change our criminal justice system.”
The Brennan report found that in the 10 largest U.S. cities, crime rates as of Dec. 23 were on track to decline by 2.5 percent from 2014 levels, while murder rates were expected to rise 11.3 percent.
Washington, D.C., and Baltimore together account for nearly half of the increase in murders nationwide.
Experts told The Daily Signal that disparate factors are behind the rising murder rates, and their contrast with the overall crime rate, although all of them caution that it will be years, if ever, before the reasons are clear.
“Some of the fluctuations you see in numbers are inexplicable,” said Ronal Serpas, who was the superintendent of the New Orleans Police Department from 2010 to 2014.
