Well Santa has come and gone, at least for the largest proportion of the world’s population. And, as we reach the end of the year, it is inevitably time to review recent trends and the prospects for 2016.
By Many Standards, 2015 Has Been a Terrible Year
The war in Syria and Iraq worsened as the number of war casualties grew and its consequences spread. First, to Europe’s shores, with horrendous attacks on Paris at the beginning and near the end of the year. And then it spread to America with the attack in San Bernardino.
The flow of refugees fleeing from the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Eritrea became a tidal wave as the number of internally displaced persons and refugees reached an all-time high. Some European governments, like Germany, found their soul when it came to accepting these refugees. Others lost theirs—if they ever had one.
Back in the United States, some used their presidential campaign as an opportunity to tap the kind of nativist impulse that periodically overwhelms the country when its national security is threatened. Many Republicans supported banning Muslims from entering the United States. Others favored registering those already domiciled.
As all this was happening, the world’s governments sold more arms than ever. And U.S.-Chinese relations became increasingly tense over the revelation that China was building islands in the South China Sea.
But There Have Been Some Bright Spots
We should remember that wasn’t all bad news. America’s rapprochement with Cuba has potentially eradicated one of the few remaining vestiges of the Cold War. And while the jury is still out, the P5+1 agreement with Iran offers the prospect that the West will avert a damaging conventional war.
More importantly, the number of people living in extreme poverty declined again, falling to 14 percent in 2015, from nearly 50 percent a generation ago. And the international community reached an environmental agreement in Paris. While critics may rightly contend that it is inadequate, in the words of Lao Tzu, “the journey of a thousand miles begins with one step.”
Finally, if the Nigerian president is to be believed, Boko Haram has been “defeated,“ at least technically. If true, and that is a big ”if,” it offers some inspiration for all those governments dealing with radicalism and terrorism.
What of Last Year’s Predictions?
At this time last year, I offered my predictions for 2015.
I suggested that the United States would increase its ground force combat military presence in Iraq and Syria. That proved true. I also predicted that the war would come to Europe and that Europe would join the war—although France and Britain have stuck to an air war so far, and not ground troops as I suggested. I predicted that American relations with Russia would worsen, which they have; and that the number of migrants and refugees fleeing to Europe would grow—as they did, with more than a million arriving. I also predicted that the major powers would reach a deal with Iran. Finally, I suggested that the dollar would strengthen against other major currencies. It did.
