As former President Donald Trump’s national polling advantage narrows to a single point, some Republicans see concerning signs in one southern state.
On the surface, Trump’s position in the crucial states of North Carolina and Georgia, where he’s leading by around 5 points, looks strong.
But can the region be written off as solidly for Trump? The answer isn’t so obvious in key cities, counties, and polling places.
Specifically, local conservatives in an important purple patch in North Carolina worry their ground game is lacking in comparison to that of Democrats.
The Epoch Times was on the ground in Matthews, North Carolina, a purple-voting suburb that lies well north of deep blue Charlotte.
In 2020, the precinct went for Trump by 50.38 percent over President Joe Biden’s 47.48 percent. Just to the northwest, a nearby precinct went for Biden overTrump by a similar margin.
But on the ground, conservatives sense weaknesses—particularly in their grassroots ground game.
“Republicans have got to organize the grassroots to the same level [as] the Democrats,” a local GOP insider told The Epoch Times.
That sentiment was echoed by every Republican and conservative from the area who spoke with The Epoch Times.
Some also worried the RNC isn’t spending enough, even after Michael Whatley, former chair of the North Carolina GOP, took over the national party.
Outside Matthews’ library, where representatives of political parties are allowed to hand out literature and speak with voters, there was one Republican to two Democrats. The local GOP insider said the Democrats often had even more volunteers on hand.
“We just work harder,” Jackie Goldberger, one of the two Democrats, told The Epoch Times.
Pastor Leon Threatt, a member of Matthews’ Board of Commissioners and a Republican, told The Epoch Times that local Democrats “operate far more as activists than the Republicans.”
These anxieties are only heightened by a broad influx of northeast liberals into the state, particularly New Yorkers.
Technically, Democrats also have a slight edge over Republicans in registered voters, as well.
According to the N.C. State Board of Elections’ most recent data, there are around 170,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. But the largest electorate in the state, making up nearly 37 percent of registered voters, is unaffiliated voters.
But Democrats’ voter registration advantage in the state has also narrowed over the past few years. The party’s registration numbers have slowly fallen while Republican and unaffiliated registrations have grown.
But Threatt isn’t sure if that will translate into more people voting for Republicans in November.
Also at play in N.C., as in so many other states, is the abortion issue, which has caused Republicans to expect “money bombs” to come in from pro-abortion groups.
As November closes in, political junkies will likely be more interested in states such as Wisconsin and Arizona. But the “money bombs,” and ground game, on both sides in North Carolina may prove more significant than many expect.
—Nathan Worcester and Joseph Lord
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE
If Republicans regain control of the Senate in November, two candidate recruitment decisions made by Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) early in the 2024 campaign will have likely proved significant.
Specifically, Daines—who runs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)—made the decision to back political newcomer Tim Sheehy against Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in Montana and Republican Gov. Jim Justice for the West Virginia seat being vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).
“We’ve put together an all-star recruiting class on the field, now we need to finish the job in November,” Daines told The Epoch Times.
Daines was instrumental in backing Sheehy in Montana and securing Trump’s endorsement for the candidate, putting to bed the risk of a divisive primary.
The Montana race has already produced something unseen in Tester’s three previous Senate wins: he trailed Sheehy by three points in the latest Montana poll by J.L. Partners of 503 likely voters, with seven percent undecided.
That’s a bad sign for the perennially popular Montana Democrat who was first elected in 2006, and is now on track for one of the toughest battles of his career as he seeks a fourth term in a state that voted for Trump by over 16 points in 2020.
Likewise, Daines was instrumental in recruiting West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice to challenge Democrats’ hold over Manchin’s seat. It’s a race that the popular governor is all but certain to win.
The importance of each such decision is magnified in a campaign year like 2024.
Only one flipped seat is needed to move the Senate from its present Democrat majority into a 50–50 split. Two flips put Republicans in the majority with a 51–49 advantage.
This year seems to favor Republicans to pull that off, with only 10 GOP seats to defend and 23 Democratic seats up for election (including three Independents who caucus with Democrats). A special election is scheduled for two extra seats—one to fill Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R-Neb.) seat and one to fill the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) seat.
Most incumbents in both parties are heavily favored to win re-election in November, but two Republican and five Democrat senators are retiring, leaving their seats open, as well as Arizona’s Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who switched to independent last year.
All in all, Republicans seem poised to take back the Senate this year with at least a one-vote majority.
—Mark Tapscott and Joseph Lord
KEY WITNESS SET TO TESTIFY
Trump’s New York “hush money” trial is set to continue in the coming days.
Prosecutors’ star witness this week will be Michael Cohen, the disgraced ex-Trump lawyer turned vitriolic Trump critic who already has a conviction under his belt for making false statements to Congress.
He’ll be a tough sell for jurors, and a witness that Trump’s team is likely to seek to discredit on the stand.
The controversial figure was the origin of the claims that led to Trump’s 34-count criminal indictment, alleging that 11 invoices Cohen billed were falsified business records created to cover-up a scheme to influence the 2016 elections.
Prosecutors allege the payments made by Trump to Cohen were not in fact legal expenses but reimbursement for a “hush money” payment. They spent earlier parts of the trial establishing context with witnesses on the peripheries of these transactions, but have not yet presented in court testimony directly alleging Trump’s involvement.
Cohen is known to have lied multiple times under oath, with one of those instances resulting in a perjury conviction, and is a vocal critic of President Trump, making him a potentially risky witness.
Prosecutors also revealed last week that former Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg may not testify, meaning the jury may have to decide whether or not to take Cohen’s word for the allegations without corroborating testimony.
Weisselberg is a key figure in this case because he is the one who approved the $420,000 to be paid to Cohen through monthly payments in 2017.
Should he not testify, Cohen will be the last word on conversations that occurred only between him and Weisselberg, with no others present.
Last week, another key figure in the case—pornographic film star Stormy Daniels, who’s at the center of the alleged hush money payments—took the stand, going into lurid detail about her alleged one-night affair with the former president.
The testimony was controversial, and largely unrelated to the charges at hand.
Several experts have told The Epoch Times that many of her remarks shouldn’t have been allowed at all, and could give the former president grounds to seek an appeal.
“It’s shameful that the judge allowed it,” Phill Kline, a Liberty University law professor and former Kansas attorney general, said.
Allowing such testimony violated a basic American legal precept: That prosecutors are barred from presenting irrelevant evidence, especially if it “could incite a jury, because of dislike or anger, to punish the person, regardless of whether they find them guilty or not,” Kline said.
This week in court will likely be one of Trump’s most important, as this case is the only one of his pending cases likely to see trial before the election.
—Joseph Lord and Catherine Yang
BOOKMARKS
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), an inflammatory anti-Israel member of the progressive “Squad,” has won Democrats’ endorsement despite a push to replace her, The Epoch Times’ Beth Brelje reported. Political tensions filled the room during the nominating convention, during which Omar scraped by with 60.5 percent support—barely reaching the 60 percent threshold to clinch the nomination.
Some unique figures are vying for the chance to challenge Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) in one of the Silver State’s most competitive districts, The Epoch Times’ Nathan Worcester reported. Perhaps the most unusual of these is Marty O’Donnell, who composed the music for the popular video game franchise “Halo.” O’Donnell is facing off against a former Nevada state treasurer, the founder of a libertarian think tank, a veteran, and a poker player for the Republican nomination.
Republicans looking to recapture the Senate in November think an apparently accelerating shift among Jewish voters from the Democrats to the GOP could significantly boost their candidates in battleground races: the Jewish vote. The Epoch Times’ Mark Tapscott reported on suspected shifts in Jews’ political allegiance, from an overwhelmingly Democratic bloc to a potential pickup for Republicans.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken declined to identify a “red line” that would prompt the U.S. to stop supporting Israel, The Epoch Times’ Joseph Lord reported. It comes after Biden announced he’d withhold some weapon shipments to Israel ahead of its expected invasion of Rafah—a move that prompted criticism and praise alike in Congress.