CHARLESTON, S.C.—Today’s Republican presidential primary raises two questions: What will be President Donald Trump’s margin of victory? And what will Nikki Haley do next?
The former president is polling around 30 percentage points ahead of the former governor of this state and is expected to win this fourth contest of the primary season.
Despite that significant advantage, the Trump campaign has been active here in an apparent attempt to deepen inroads among black voters and, perhaps, to make a definitive statement about the state of the race by shellacking Ms. Haley in her home state.
Donald Trump Jr. held campaign events here this week, as did Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, whom he’s tapped for RNC Co-chair.
Trump made multiple appearances here, including at last night’s Black Conservative Federation Honors Gala in Columbia. Trump delivered the keynote speech at the event, which honored Dr. Ben Carson, a pediatric neurosurgeon and former secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Trump administration.
A pair of recent surveys indicate that support for Trump is growing among black Americans, with 17 percent indicating they would vote for him, while a Dec. 12 survey by GenForward revealed that 20 percent said they would vote for someone other than the two major candidates.
Black eligible voters are projected to number 34.4 million in November, comprising 14 percent of eligible voters, a historic high, according to Pew Research.
Exit polling from today’s election could indicate whether that polling is accurate, at least in South Carolina.
Trump is more popular than Haley in South Carolina despite the fact that she served two terms as governor here. No major-party candidate has lost in their home state in the modern primary era, so Trump appears on track to achieve a historic upset.
The most prominent statewide elected officials here have endorsed the former president, including the state’s governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. U.S. Sens. Tim Scott and Lindsey Graham have also endorsed Trump, as has GOP Rep. Nancy Mace.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) is Ms. Haley’s most prominent supporter in the Palmetto State. Asked yesterday if Haley has a realistic pathway to the nomination, Mr. Norman told The Epoch Times, “We’ll know tomorrow.” In reference to the polls, he added, “She’s not going to lose by 30 points.”
Trump’s margin of victory could be moderated by the participation of independents and some Democrats in today’s open primary.
In New Hampshire, which allows voters to change their political affiliation easily, Haley gained significant support from independent voters. That apparently accounted for her finishing with 43 percent of the vote in that state’s January contest, 9 percentage points above her polling average.
Haley is polling at about 32 percent here in South Carolina. A finish in the 40-percent range would likely not affect the number of delegates she receives, but it could bolster her standing as an alternative to Trump in what is just their second one-on-one matchup.
State officials of both parties have said they expect some so-called crossover voting to occur but do not believe it will significantly impact the outcome of the South Carolina race.
Despite trailing Trump badly in national polling, Haley reiterated this week that she intends to remain in the race regardless of the outcome of today’s primary.
“I refuse to quit,” Ms. Haley told supporters in Clemson on Tuesday. “South Carolina will vote on Saturday. But on Sunday, I’ll still be running for president. I’m not going anywhere.”
Haley said many Republicans were driven by “herd mentality” to President Trump but that she felt no need to “kiss the ring.”
Asked whether he thought Haley would pursue a third-party bid for the White House under the No Labels ticket, Trump told The Epoch Times, “We’ve had enough of her.”
Early voting statistics indicate a strong interest in today’s primary. As of Thursday, the final day of early voting, more than 205,000 people had participated in this election. A total of some 131,000 voters took part in the state’s Feb. 3 Democratic contest.
More than 745,000 voted in the state’s 2016 Republican primary, the last year in which the race was contested.
Polls close at 7 p.m.
