After Tuesday’s voting, the outcome of the Democratic presidential primary appears settled. Thanks to decisive wins in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, Hillary Clinton can breathe easier.
For Republicans, however, the path forward has suddenly become less clear.
With Marco Rubio out and John Kasich carrying his—and my—home state of Ohio, we may need to wait until July to meet the ultimate Republican nominee.
Kasich’s Hope: A Contested Convention
Kasich’s Ohio victory makes a contested Republican convention more likely.
Since he carried Florida, Trump still has a chance to win a delegate majority necessary to secure the party’s nomination, but his path for doing so has become far narrower.
By contrast, Kasich’s hope rests entirely on a deadlocked convention. With his current delegate count, even a late surge in the polls in the remaining states would make it mathematically impossible for Kasich to win an outright delegate majority.
The Ohio victory highlights Kasich’s potential popularity in pivotal battleground states. It may help boost his appeal to delegates at the Cleveland convention in July. Still, it’s important not to exaggerate the magnitude of his winning margin. Even though he ended in first place in Ohio, Kasich has still won fewer than half of the total Republican primary vote here.
