JIM THORPE, Pa.—Most citizens of Carbon County are not your shout-from-the-rooftop types. And it’s a brave soul who openly reveals their pick for president this year. Asking someone is a bit dicey. It can elicit a similar reaction to inquiring about their most embarrassing moment: a quick glance around at who might be listening, hushed tones, a bit of circling around and deflection.
For many in the state where the Constitution was written, this election feels more like a splinter getting pulled than a glorious moment of democracy.
In true battleground style, the winner of Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes will likely go down to the wire. And Carbon County, population 64,000, is the microcosm in which the state’s angst is being reflected.
One middle-aged woman is voting for the first time ever. “Fear has motivated me,” she said. She was very careful to say that she’s not voting for Hillary Clinton—rather, she’s voting against Donald Trump.
Another middle-aged woman practically glowed with pride when recalling her first time voting at 18 and every election year since. Not this cycle. She is abstaining. “Not voting is my vote,” she said.
A couple of hardy looking men said they were definitely voting, but, a little sheepishly, refused to say for whom. “I’ve got nothing good to say,” one said.
Then there are the all-important undecideds, the reason the Clinton and Trump campaigns have visited Pennsylvania 15 and 17 times respectively since the end of July. No other state is being wooed so attentively by both candidates.
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Bellwether
Carbon County is worth keeping an eye on. In uncanny fashion, the citizens of the 387-square-mile chunk in eastern Pennsylvania have chosen the eventual winner of the state in all but three elections in the last 100 years (they missed 1960, 2000, and 2004). And Pennsylvania itself is one of the winningest states, behind Illinois and Ohio. It has correctly chosen the eventual president in 34 of the last 43 elections (back to 1844).
So, the 42,246 registered voters of Carbon County are considered a bellwether for the state’s nearly 8.6 million voters. County voters have registered in larger numbers this year: 18,400 Democrats, 17,690 Republicans, and 6,156 third-party or unknown.
Since 1996, the state, and more so the county, has shifted to the right.
In the 2012 presidential election, Carbon County voted for Mitt Romney by a full 7.5 points—a significant departure from the state and nation, which voted for Barack Obama.
As expected in a swing state, opinions run the gamut. The majority of people aren’t happy with either choice—the most common phrase uttered was: “The lesser of two evils.” Slightly more people are voting against a candidate rather than for one. And many are still not sure.
