Tropical Storm Isaac is bearing down on Tampa, Fla., altering plans for the 2012 Republican National Convention (RNC), but the big question for political observers is whether Republicans will create their own whirlwind during the historic event.
Conventions are largely “commercials pushing the party message,” and as such are tightly scripted, says associate professor Martin Johnson, chair of Politics at the University of California–Riverside.
“That is one of the interesting things to watch in this convention ... the extent to which they can stay on the script,” Johnson said.
Isaac has already forced RNC organizers to cancel events Monday, the first day of the formerly four-day event.
“Our first priority is ensuring the safety of delegates, alternates, guests, members of the media attending the Republican National Convention, and citizens of the Tampa Bay area,” RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said in a statement Saturday.
While weather is one source of concern for convention organizers, smooth running of the event—broadcast across the nation over three nights—is critical to the Republican Party and the Romney presidential campaign.
Convention organizers will want to keep the focus on the economy and jobs, with social issues—many of which are contentious within the party—skirted where possible to avoid upsets, says Jennifer Marsico, political analyst with the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).
“There will be no desire to draw attention to differences within the party,” she said.
Johnson says the party has exhibited major rifts within its ranks this year, making it more difficult to predict how proceedings will unfold.
He referred to supporters of libertarian Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who were rowdy and vocal at some of presumptive presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s speeches during the primaries.
“People are still watching what is going to happen with the supporters of Congressman Paul,” Johnson said. “This is a potential source of deviation from the script.”
There is also the risk that Tea Party supporters will make their presence felt, Romney struggling to gain support among more conservative Republicans during the primaries.
“The Tea Party faction of the Republican Party is not a group of people that stays on script,” he said.
While former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, an outspoken Tea Party supporter, was not selected to speak at the convention, newly elected Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is aligned with Tea Party principles, has been included in the lineup.
Johnson says unscripted moments may not come from the convention floor but from other activities surrounding the event.
“Those are also potential sources of alternative messages of what the Romney campaign would want to see emphasized during that week,” he said.
