Video Transcript
Paul Floyd: Hi my name is Paul Floyd a military analyst here at Stratfor and today I’m joined by Sim Tack, another military analyst, and today we'll be discussing the Ukrainian cease-fire and what has been happening recently in that country. So Sim, technically we’re in a cease-fire, but there have been almost daily violations of that cease-fire with casualties and shelling and fighting. What is the disposition, are we seeing an offensive or what is exactly happening on the ground in eastern Ukraine?
Sim Tack: So to answer that question let me go back a little while to when the cease-fire actually started. We saw the original cease-fire announced on Sept. 5 last year. When both sides actually stopped conducting their major offensive moves against each other, but fighting did continue. We saw artillery shelling by both sides on each other. We saw small arms fire going on, even small territorial grabs along the frontline. Then this cease-fire gradually evolved around the beginning of December into a more settled down situation. For several weeks actually artillery fire died down. Heavy artillery pieces were being withdrawn from the frontline. But then around Christmastime we saw a re-escalation of this violence going back to the levels that we saw between Sept. 5 and Dec. 9 respectively. And right now we see a continuation of what’s been happening since Christmas with Russian deployments into eastern Ukraine continuing to increase gradually over time.
Recent Developments in the Ukraine Conflict
Video Transcript
Paul Floyd: Hi my name is Paul Floyd a military analyst here at Stratfor and today I’m joined by Sim Tack, another military analyst, and today we'll be discussing the Ukrainian cease-fire and what has been happening recently in that country. So Sim, technically we’re in a cease-fire, but there have been almost daily violations of that cease-fire with casualties and shelling and fighting. What is the disposition, are we seeing an offensive or what is exactly happening on the ground in eastern Ukraine?
Sim Tack: So to answer that question let me go back a little while to when the cease-fire actually started. We saw the original cease-fire announced on Sept. 5 last year. When both sides actually stopped conducting their major offensive moves against each other, but fighting did continue. We saw artillery shelling by both sides on each other. We saw small arms fire going on, even small territorial grabs along the frontline. Then this cease-fire gradually evolved around the beginning of December into a more settled down situation. For several weeks actually artillery fire died down. Heavy artillery pieces were being withdrawn from the frontline. But then around Christmastime we saw a re-escalation of this violence going back to the levels that we saw between Sept. 5 and Dec. 9 respectively. And right now we see a continuation of what’s been happening since Christmas with Russian deployments into eastern Ukraine continuing to increase gradually over time.
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