Russia’s nascent Syria campaign has certainly gotten off to a rocky start: international skepticism of its aims, provocative forays into Turkish airspace, missiles apparently crashing in Iran.
But with the Pentagon abandoning a key program to train the Syrian rebels it accuses Moscow of attacking, it’s clear that the game is changing fast on both sides. In a few short days, Moscow has already forced the U.S.’s hand—and it could yet profoundly change the two countries’ relationship.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. The Obama administration initially tried to “reset“ relations with Russia, and for a brief period, NATO resumed dialogue with Russia through the NATO-Russia Council. Russia even contributed to a 2011 NATO exercise, Bold Monarch.
Then came the annexation of Crimea, and as of April 1, 2014, all practical civilian and military co-operation between NATO and Russia has been suspended indefinitely.
Suspicious Minds
Russia’s actions in Crimea, later in Eastern Ukraine, and now in Syria are all examples of Russia’s Gerasimov Doctrine, more commonly known as hybrid warfare.
Russia’s articulated perception of the West—and especially the United States—is one where opportunities to overthrow legitimate governments that are not agreeable to the U.S.’s grand strategy are pursued through the CIA. From Russia’s point of view, this includes not only the “color revolutions“ in Europe and Central Asia, but also the Arab Spring.
Whether this view of the West is sincerely believed behind the Kremlin’s closed doors is debatable. Nonetheless, the Gerasimov Doctrine is Russia’s way of denying what it sees as the West’s constant expansion into its traditional security perimeter and for forcing regime change with Russia’s traditional allies abroad.
