Two different developments have put the fallout from the Libyan revolution in the spotlight over the past week. Near the coastal city of Zawiya, fighting has erupted between rival factions, one of which accuses the other of being Gadhafi loyalists. Meanwhile, groups of Gadhafi loyalist fighters, including at least one, possibly two of Gadhafi’s sons, have crossed over into neighboring Niger, sources say.
In northern Libya, armed groups clashed over the weekend, leaving at least 7, possibly as many as 13 dead, the BBC reported on Monday. It appears that armed factions in Zawiya accuse fighters belonging to another tribe in the nearby Washefana area of having ties to the Gadhafi government.
Although the ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) says that the dispute has now been resolved and attributed the incident to “young men behaving irresponsibly,” the irresponsibility of young, armed ,and unemployed men is in fact one of the things that threatens to destabilize Libya, according to commentators.
The new situation in Libya has the potential to spark both positive and negative developments in the Maghreb and Sahel regions, according to participants of a panel discussion arranged by the Michael S. Ansari Africa Center of the Atlantic Council, on Nov. 9.
Unemployed Youths a Problem
Among the problems faced by the NTC is an unemployment rate that was at 35 percent even before the revolution, and is now likely closer to 50–60 percent. Add to this an unclear situation, even for those who have jobs or go to university, plus an abundance of weapons and you have a troublesome situation, Fadel Lamen, president of the American Libyan Council explained. With universities still closed and many government institutions in limbo, the young men who took part in ousting Gadhafi may become a problem.
“The longer it takes, the more in love with their weapons they will be, and the harder it will be for them to give them up,” he said. “It gives them some kind of presence, power and recognition.”
Absorbing some of these young fighters, especially the unemployed, in the army or law enforcement may be an option, but there is a risk of mixed or even conflicting loyalties, “militias within the institutions” as has happened in some cases in Iraq, for instance, Lamen said.
This is also tied to the political problem of how to deal with Gadhafi’s legacy, all those who worked for him and supported him, and how to achieve a reconciliation.
How to distribute power along ethnic, regional, political, and religious lines in the new government is now a major issue says Geoff D. Porter of North Africa Risk Consulting Inc.
The NTC has so far avoided dealing with the issue and chosen technocrats, he said, but added: “The longer that Libya avoids these political hurdles, the longer these tension … will have to fester.”
Problems Could Spread
Libya’s problems also run the risk of becoming the problems of the entire region. Gadhafi’s enormous stockpile of weapons is not totally secure and could end up in the hands of militants, such as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).
Remaining Gadhafi loyalists may also be spreading into neighboring countries. Last week the army of neighboring Niger stopped a heavily armed convoy of alleged Libyan nationals and Tuaregs en route to Mali, killing 13 fighters, according to AP sources. Armed Tuareg groups operating in this area fought on the side of Gadhafi, who supported them against the regimes of Niger and Mali.
At least one of Gadhafi’s sons, Saadi, is most likely in Niger, and another, Saif al-Islam, is also reportedly there, or in the area.
Geoff Porter says the Nigerien government has tried to reach out to the NTC to find a solution to this situation, but the NTC has so far been unreceptive.
He also mentioned that a large contingent of about 2,000 “battle-hardened, well equipped and well-trained” fighters left Libya just prior to the fall of Gadhafi and crossed over into Mali. They are ostensibly better equipped and trained than the Malian army, and it is not clear what will happen to them. They may join the Tuareg groups that have been a source of instability in the region over the last 30 years. They may also join one of the factions of the AQIM, Porter said.
Despite the potential problems and those that have already manifested, however, the panel agreed that this is also an opportunity for more positive relations between countries in the region now that Gadhafi is gone. But it is very much up to the NTC and the future Libyan government to be a force for stability. While Gadhafi had grand pan-African visions and created relations with neighboring countries, the NTC has argued that he mainly exchanged money and favors with other dictators.
“The relationships between Libya and other African countries will have to be redefined and rebuilt,” Fadel Lamen said.
