DES MOINES, Iowa—It’s been a year of town halls and weekend forums and lunchtime meet-and-greets for those who would be president, with nights spent sparring in televised debates and endless days fundraising to pay for TV ads, direct-mail fliers, and organizers to get out the vote.
All of it is aimed at people like Jocelyn Beyer, a Republican from the small town of Sully in rural central Iowa, who says despite the many months of political clamor, she’s only just now starting to think about her vote for the White House.
“I can’t say I’ve paid much attention,” Beyer said. “The moral issues are what I focus on. If I had to vote today, I'd vote for Ted Cruz.” The Texas senator is atop the pack in Iowa, home to the leadoff caucuses on Feb. 1.
For all the attention showered on early-state voters in the past year by candidates, their unpaid volunteers and high-dollar ad-makers—and, yes, journalists too—the truth is that what happened in 2015 was only the pregame show.
The race for the White House starts this week in earnest, as voters such as Beyer begin to tune in and the candidates try to win them over during a four-week sprint to the Iowa caucuses.
“The race is still fluid,” said Beth Myers, who managed 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s campaign and supports former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in 2016. “There’s still a twist or two in this primary story that we don’t know yet.”
Where to begin?
It’s easier to start with the Democrats.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, hopes an upset in Iowa and a victory in the New Hampshire primary a week later will dent the apparent inevitability of front-runner Hillary Clinton. Wins in the first two states for the former first lady, New York senator and secretary of state would all but cement her place atop her party’s ticket.
There is no such clarity in the Republican race. Despite shedding five candidates before New Year’s Day, this contest is an unpredictable mix of a dozen hopefuls with vastly different visions for the party and the country.
Cruz spent 2015 quietly building a traditional campaign apparatus and will kick off his month with a tried-and-true bus tour—six days, 28 cities—of Iowa’s most fertile ground for Republicans. Candidates often try to recruit a political leader to stand for them in each of Iowa’s 99 counties. Cruz has also sought a pastor in each to do the same, working to corner the market on evangelicals who make up a significant part of the GOP caucuses.
“For Cruz, it’s about the complete consolidation of the evangelical wing to snuff the life from the others,” said Phil Musser, a Republican consultant who is not affiliated with any campaign.
