NEW YORK—Immigration has emerged as a key campaign issue in the elections in Great Britain, the United States, Germany, France, Austria, and India. International migration, while of little demographic consequence at the global level, can be more visible at the national level, impacting population size, age structure, and ethnic composition. Nations like the United States, Australia, and Great Britain could expect minimal population growth—and in Canada’s case, decline—without international migration.
International migration accounts for the dominant share of future population growth in many countries, especially those with low fertility rates, over the coming decades. By mid-century, for example, the projected proportions of population growth as a result of immigration are substantial: Australia, 78 percent; the United Kingdom, 78 percent; and the United States, 72 percent. Without international migration, Canadian population is projected be about 3 percent smaller by 2050.
In most other developed countries, including Italy, Japan, Germany, Spain, and the Russian Federation, immigration reduces the expected declines in their future populations resulting from negative rates of natural increase, with more deaths than births annually. For example, without international migration Germany’s current population is projected to decline by 16 percent by mid-century; with immigration the projected decline is halved to 8 percent.
