To have any chance of preventing dangerous climate change, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero or even negative by mid-century. Many experts suggest this means we need to completely phase out fossil fuels and replace them with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind.
Several studies have concluded that 100 percent renewable energy supply systems are technically and economically feasible. This informs the widespread view that fossil fuels can be more or less “swapped out” for renewables, without significant economic consequences.
We are strongly sympathetic to the need for a rapid global shift away from fossil fuels. But new modeling conducted independently and made publicly available by my colleague at the Understandascope, Josh Floyd, suggests that such a transition may face significant challenges.
Future Energy
Analyses of how to get to 100 percent renewable energy typically look at how future energy sources can supply enough energy to meet a given future demand.
This is what’s known as an “energy balance.” The high-quality work of Mark Diesendorf and his colleagues on the transition of Australia’s electricity supply to 100 percent renewables typifies such modeling.
But this approach doesn’t tell us what will happen to overall energy supply during the transition.
