Scientists have developed a way to more accurately forecast nitrogen’s effects on the climate cycle. Incorporating this method shows the planet may be headed for a warmer future than was previously thought.
According to the researchers, models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change until now have not provided realistic predictions of nitrogen emissions from the land to the air and water. Of the 12 climate models used by the IPCC, only one included nitrogen, and that model was not tracing nitrogen correctly.
“Our benchmarking methods will provide a way for all the models to include nitrogen, to communicate with each other, and to reduce their overall uncertainty,” says lead author Benjamin Houlton, a professor in the department of land, air and water resources at University of California, Davis.
