Narrow Court Ruling May Offer Room for Diplomacy on South China Sea Claims
International court will soon rule on South China Sea case between China and the Philippines
The announcement is expected any day from the Arbitral Tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague on whether it has jurisdiction to rule on the Philippines’ case against China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea. In the ensuing hearing, a narrow ruling against China’s “nine-dashed line” is the most likely outcome, suggests Ashley Townshend, a research fellow in the Alliance 21 Program at the U.S. Studies Center, University of Sydney. He identifies an opportunity to reduce a key cause of tension in the South China Sea, but that requires China and Southeast Asia’s littoral nations to approach the verdict with restraint. All parties should recognize political realities and adopt a collaborative approach in returning to negotiations.
SYDNEY—While tensions continue to rise in the South China Sea with steady military buildup by all sides, especially by China, a new pathway may be opening for peaceful resolution of the territorial disputes. The Arbitral Tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration will soon announce whether it has jurisdiction to rule on the Philippine case against China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea. China is expected to reject the court’s ruling, though it might eventually be compelled to soften its stance.
The decision, expected this month, marks the next stage in a bitter legal process that began in January 2013 when Manila resorted to international law to settle its maritime disputes with Beijing under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS. Beijing immediately boycotted the proceedings, invoking its exemption to arbitration and refusing to submit formal documentation in defense of its claims. As positions hardened, China released a position paper on its objections while the United States, Japan, and Vietnam lent diplomatic support to the Philippine position.
Engulfing almost all of the South China Sea, Beijing's 'nine-dashed line' has come to signify China's maximalist claim to 'indisputable sovereignty'—a major cause of regional maritime tensions.
