Voter revolt against incumbents is likely to continue internationally in 2017.
Elections will be held this year in four of the six founding members of the European Union (EU). Populist, Eurosceptic and nationalist forces appear to be growing in each.
These same factors doubtless prevailed narrowly in the U.K. Brexit referendum. Before the end of March, Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, notifying the EU of the UK’s intention to withdraw.
Her government will then have two difficult years to negotiate its Brexit with the other 27 members. An additional complication was added in November when Britain’s High Court ruled that members of Parliament must give their approval before negotiations can begin. A majority of them as of now appear likely to vote ‘no’.
The Netherlands election is on March 15, where the Eurosceptic, anti-migration, and anti-Islam candidate Geert Wilders now leads in opinion polls. If Wilders wins, most other political parties will likely refuse to support him, but he is already influencing Dutch policies.
Its House of Representatives recently voted for a partial ban on the burqa. Wilders’ public support probably means as well that no Dutch government of any stripe will be willing to agree to the fiscal transfers necessary to allow the Eurozone to function effectively as a currency union.
France’s presidential election on April 23 will be next. EU support appears to be waning across France partly due to effective campaigning by far-right nationalist leader Marine Le Pen. She will probably reach the run-off election against François Fillon, a former prime minister. She will also campaign against ‘Islamification’ and immigration.
In Germany, which must hold its election before Oct. 22, the globally-respected defender of liberal democracy and the EU, Angela Merkel, will compete for a fourth term as chancellor against the ultra-nationalist Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party.
Similar to Donald Trump and others, the AfD is anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim. Fortunately, all opinion surveys to date indicate that Merkel will be re-elected handily. She currently has a 57 per cent approval rating and is overwhelming favoured to win re-election.
Another important but deeply-flawed election is the presidential race in Iran on May 19. Current president Hassan Rouhani is seeking a second term. Under him, Iran signed the 2015 nuclear deal with several Western powers. However, the deal’s future is uncertain, given major tensions over sanctions, a widespread lack of confidence that the regime will honor its provisions and the fact that president-elect Trump has said he will scrap it.
The Italian election—if it occurs this year—is potentially the most existentially dangerous for the E.U. Matteo Renzi’s defeat in the recent constitutional reform referendum illustrates the anger of many Italians.
