Authoritarianism has retrenched in the Middle East with new strategies to extend control
The Arab Spring, a wave of protests sweeping through the Middle East in 2011, inspired hope for more freedoms in the region. Such anticipation was short-lived as authoritarian rulers recalibrated strategies for control by strengthening alliances with constituencies including elites, secular middle classes and workers who are wary of rapid changes that might threaten economic stability, explains Hicham Alaoui, the director of the non-profit Hicham Alaoui Foundation for Social Science Research. He delivered the annual Coca-Cola World Fund at Yale Lecture this year, and this essay is based on that lecture. He describes operational tactics employed by some governments: repression of opposition and extensive monitoring of public activities, exploitation of fear, selective enforcement of strict interpretations for Islam, and increased interventions throughout the region. “However, at the heart of retrenched authoritarianism rests a long-term gamble,” notes Alaoui, that “all else being equal, youth activists that comprise the vanguard of opposition movements can be permanently deactivated.” Societies with a high proportion of youth cannot ignore that driving force of change.
NEW HAVEN—The revolutionary wave of mass protests known as the Arab Spring is currently paused. While most of the West remains focused upon conflicts that have exploded in its undertow, including civil wars in Libya and Syria, we should not lose sight of another development in the Middle East—that of retrenched authoritarianism.
The autocratic regimes that escaped the Arab Spring have not lain idle while revolutions upended Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen. Rather, the survivors have recalibrated their ruling strategies. The result is retrenched authoritarianism, defined as not simply a return to the pre–Arab Spring status quo, but rather the creation of more intransigent and potent means of controlling society on part of incumbent regimes.
Critically, this revitalized desire for authoritarian control is symbiotic with social mobilization: the more a regime perceives society as willing to rebel, the more tenaciously it fights to preserve power. Arab leaders know that the underlying social and economic dynamics of popular uprising still exist. Retrenched authoritarianism thus reflects the desire of regimes to defeat societal forces of opposition once and for all.
Protestors gather in Tahrir Square for a mass rally in Cairo, Egypt, on Nov. 25, 2011. Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
