BAGHDAD—An unlikely array of forces is converging on the city of Mosul, lining up for a battle on the historic plains of northern Iraq that is likely to be decisive in the war against the Islamic State (ISIS).
The tacit alliance—Iraqi troops alongside Shiite militiamen, Kurdish fighters, Sunni Arab tribesmen and U.S special forces—underscores the importance of this battle. Retaking Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, would effectively break the back of the militant group, ending their self-declared “caliphate,” at least in Iraq.
But victory doesn’t mean an end to the conflict. In a post-ISIS Iraq, the enmities and rivalries among the players in the anti-ISIS coalition could easily erupt.
The battle, expected near the end of the year, threatens to be long and grueling. If ISIS fighters dig in against an assault, they have hundreds of thousands of residents in the city as potential human shields. And as residents flee, they fuel the humanitarian crisis in Iraq’s Kurdish region around Mosul, where camps are already overcrowded with more than 1.6 million people displaced over the past two years. Humanitarian groups are rushing to prepare for potentially 1 million more who could be displaced by a Mosul assault.
The biggest prize captured by the militants after they overran much of northern, western and central Iraq in the summer of 2014, Mosul has been vital for ISIS. The reserves in its banks provided a massive cash boost to the group, and the city’s infrastructure and resources helped ISIS as it set up its caliphate across Iraq and Syria.
Mosul was the location chosen by ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to make his first public appearance after declaring the caliphate, a triumphant sermon delivered at a historic mosque in the old city. For the past two years, much of the leadership seems to have operated from Mosul.
