How Accurate are Rivals.com Rankings? (Part II) Rivals Class of 2009

What happened to the Rivals top 100 for the class of 2009? In retrospect, how accurate are Rivals rankings in determining future professional prospects?

Kansas City Chiefs strong safety Ron Parker, left, forces a fumble off Buffalo Bills running back Bryce Brown during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 9, 2014, in Orchard Park, N.Y. AP Photo/Bill Wippert

In February, the Epoch Times’ How Accurate are Rivals.com Rankings? followed what happened to the Rivals class of 2010 five years after they enrolled in their respective colleges. In this segment, we would like to extend that analysis to Rivals’ 2009 class.

First, we will list the entire 2009 Rivals top 100 with an added column for when the players were drafted, and if they weren’t drafted, their current/last known whereabouts. Afterwards, we will conduct further analysis to access the accuracy of the 2009 rankings.

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• How Accurate are Rivals.com Rankings?

Rank	Name	Pos	Ht	Wt	College	NFL Draft/ Professional Status
#1	Bryce Brown*	RB	6'0”	215	Tennessee	7th round 2012, Phildelphia Eagles (Now with Buffalo Bills)
#2	Rueben Randle*	WR	6'3”	195	LSU	2nd round 2012, New York Giants
#3	D.J. Fluker*	OL	6'7”	350	Alabama	1st round 2013, San Diego Chargers
#4	Sheldon Richardson*	DT	6'4”	292	Missouri	1st round 2013, New York Jets
#5	Matt Barkley*	QB	6'2”	226	USC	4th round 2013, Philadelphia Eagles
#6	Trent Richardson*	RB	5'11”	210	Alabama	1st round 2012, Cleveland Browns (Now with Oakland Raiders)
#7	Russell Shepard*	QB	6'1”	179	LSU	Undrafted 2013, Currently with Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#8	Devon Kennard*	DE	6'3”	257	USC	5th round 2014, New York Giants
#9	Vontaze Burfict*	LB	6'2”	244	Arizona St.	Undrafted 2012, Currently with Cincinnati Bengals
#10	Jelani Jenkins*	LB	6'2”	220	Florida	4th round 2013, Miami Dolphins
#11	Dre Kirkpatrick*	DB	6'2”	180	Alabama	1st round 2012, Cincinnati Bengals
#12	Manti Te'o*	LB	6'2”	225	Notre Dame	2nd round 2013, San Diego Chargers
#13	Ray Ray Armstrong*	ATH	6'4”	218	Miami (FL)	Undrafted 2013, Currently with Oakland Raiders
#14	Alex Okafor*	DE	6'4”	232	Texas	4th round 2013, Arizona Cardinals
#15	Jacobbi McDaniel*	DT	6'0”	267	Florida St.	Undrafted 2014, Currently with Cleveland Browns
#16	Donte Moss*	DE	6'4”	235	N. Carolina	Undrafted 2012, no NFL team, now with San Jose Sabercats of AFL
#17	Janzen Jackson*	DB	6'0”	174	Tennessee	Undrafted 2012, Currently a free agent – last played for Toronto Argonauts of CFL in 2013. Was rostered by the New York Giants for a little over three months in 2012.
#18	Garrett Gilbert*	QB	6'4”	205	Texas	6th round 2014, St Louis Rams, Currently with Detroit Lions
#19	Patrick Hall*	ATH	6'1”	181	USC	Suspended in 2010 by USC coach Lane Kiffin. Last known to have played for Ventura College in 2013.
#20	Craig Loston*	DB	6'2”	193	LSU	Undrafted, Jacksonville Jaguars
#21	Andre Debose*	WR	6'0”	170	Florida	7th round 2015, Oakland Raiders
#22	Christine Michael*	RB	5'11”	202	Texas A&M	2nd round 2013, Seattle Seahawks
#23	Gary Brown*	DT	6'3”	275	Florida	Dismissed from USC football in 2010 for striking two females at party. No known football activity afterwards.
#24	Darius Winston*	DB	6'0”	180	Arkansas	Undrafted, Last reported to be at Edmonton Camp(CFL). Beforehand, spent some time with Cincinati Bengals and Carolina Panthers.
#25	Chris Davenport*	DT	6'4”	318	LSU	Currently playing for Tulane University
#26	William Campbell*	DT	6'5”	317	Michigan	6th round 2013, New York Jets, Currently with Buffalo Bills (practice squad)
#27	Greg Reid*	DB	5'9”	175	Florida St.	Undrafted 2013. Briefly rostered by St Louis Rams in 2014. Currently with the Jacksonville Sharks (AFL)
#28	Branden Smith*	DB	5'11”	171	Georgia	Undrafted, cut by Buccaneers in 2013, Last known to have tried out for Toronto Argonauts (CFL)
#29	Mason Walters*	OL	6'6”	290	Texas	Currently playing for University of Texas Austin
#30	T.J. McDonald*	DB	6'2”	200	USC	3rd round 2013, Currently with St Louis Rams
#31	Corey Brown*	DB	6'0”	180	Ohio St.	Undrafted 2013, Currently with Carolina Panthers
#32	Nico Johnson*	LB	6'3”	226	Alabama	4th round 2013, Kansas City Chiefs, Currently with Cincinnati Bengals
#33	Dorian Bell*	LB	6'0”	226	Ohio St.	Suspended from Ohio State football in May 2011 for violation of alcohol policy. Last known to have played for Duquesne University.
#34	Willie Downs	ATH	6'2”	192	Florida St.	Last known to have played for Valdosta State University.
#35	Justin Turner	DB	6'2”	186	Michigan	Last known to have played for Walsh University
#36	Jamarkus McFarland	DT	6'3”	280	Oklahoma	Undrafted 2013, Currently free agent. Signed briefly with San Diego Chargers in 2013.
#37	Xavier Nixon	OL	6'6”	263	Florida	Undrafted 2013, Currently with Washington Redskins
#38	Malliciah Goodman	DE	6'4”	255	Clemson	4th round 2013, Atlanta Falcons
#39	Randall Carroll	ATH	5'10”	175	UCLA	Undrafted 2014, Signed briefly with Seattle Seahawks in 2014
#40	David Wilson	RB	5'11”	192	Virginia Tech	1st round 2012, New York Giants
#41	Cliff Harris	DB	6'0”	165	Oregon	Undrafted 2012, Signed briefly with Philadelphia Eagles in 2012 and New York Jets in 2013.
#42	Nick Kasa	DE	6'7”	245	Colorado	6th round 2013, Oakland Raiders. Currently free agent. Was released by Raiders following sophomore season.
#43	Gabe Lynn	DB	6'0”	185	Oklahoma	Undrafted 2014, Signed with Detroit Lions briefly.
#44	Ronnell Lewis	LB	6'3”	220	Oklahoma	4th round 2012, Detroit Lions, Last played for Los Angeles KISS in 2015(AFL)
#45	Shayne Skov	LB	6'2”	235	Stanford	Undrafted 2014, Currently with Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#46	Aaron Murray	QB	6'0”	198	Georgia	5th round 2014, Kansas City Chiefs
#47	Chris Faulk	OL	6'6”	310	LSU	Undrafted 2013, Briefly signed with Cleveland Browns during 2013-14 season.
#48	Jheranie Boyd	WR	6'2”	184	N. Carolina	Undrafted, no NFL team, Last known to have signed with Jacksonville Sharks in October 2014.
#49	Morgan Moses	OL	6'7”	347	Virginia	3rd round 2013, Washington Redskins
#50	Patrick Patterson	WR	6'3”	215	Mississippi	Dismissed from Mississippi in 2010 for violating team rules.
#51	Tajh Boyd	QB	6'0”	208	Clemson	6th round 2014, New York Jets (Currently with Pittsburgh Steelers)
#52	Marcus Hall	OL	6'5”	290	Ohio St.	Undrafted, signed briefly with the Indianapolis Colts in 2014.
#53	Marlon Brown	WR	6'5”	205	Georgia	Undrafted 2013, Currently with Baltimore Ravens
#54	Zeke Motta	LB	6'2”	207	Notre Dame	7th round 2013, Atlanta Falcons. Currently a free agent.
#55	Calvin Howell	DT	6'4”	280	Texas	Last known to have planned to transfer from Texas in February 2012.
#56	Jaamal Berry	RB	5'10”	185	Ohio St.	Last known to have played with Murray State University.
#57	Edwin Baker	RB	5'10”	204	Michigan St.	7th round 2012, San Diego Chargers (Currently with New Orleans Saints)
#58	Terry Hawthorne	WR	6'0”	168	Illinois	5th round 2013, Pittsburgh Steelers
#59	Michael Ford	RB	5'10”	200	LSU	Undrafted 2013, Currently with Hamilton Tiger-Cats (CFL). Signed briefly with Chicago Bears following 2013 draft.
#60	Tyrik Rollison	QB	6'2”	185	Auburn	Last known to have played for Texas A&M University in 2014.
#61	Ryne Giddins	DE	6'4”	235	South Florida	Last known to have rejoined Tampa Bay Storm (AFL) in May 2015.
#62	Orson Charles	WR	6'2”	230	Georgia	4th round 2012, Cincinnati Bengals (Currently with New Orleans Saints)
#63	Xavier Su'a Filo	OL	6'4”	285	UCLA	2nd round 2014, Houston Texans
#64	Jon Bostic	LB	6'1”	218	Florida	2nd round 2013, Chicago Bears
#65	Rodney Smith	WR	6'6”	202	Florida St.	Undrafted 2013, Currently with Cleveland Browns.
#66	Michael Philipp	OL	6'3”	320	Oregon St.	Undrafted. Was rostered by the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins in 2014.
#67	Tana Patrick	LB	6'3”	215	Alabama	Undrafted, spent time with the Chicago Bears at some point.
#68	Nu'Keese Richardson	WR	5'8”	151	Tennessee	Undrafted, signed with Colts for two days in December 2014, but was arrested for Felony charges.
#69	Garrett Porter	OL	6'6”	308	Texas	Undrafted, was looking to do music after college.
#70	Demonte McAllister	DE	6'3”	263	Florida St.	Undrafted, Signed briefly with Seattle Seahawks in May 2014.
#71	Logan Thomas	TE	6'6”	233	Virginia Tech	4th round 2014, Arizona Cardinals
#72	Jarvis Jones	DE	6'3”	226	USC	1st round 2013, Pittsburgh Steelers
#73	Justin Chaisson	DE	6'4”	252	Oklahoma	Was arrested on multiple charges in 2009. Withdrew from OU in 2010.
#74	Jamie Wood	DB	6'2”	190	Ohio St.	Left Ohio State football due to shoulder injuries in 2012.
#75	Bryce McNeal	WR	6'2”	170	Clemson	Last known to have played for Louisville University.
#76	Cierre Wood	RB	6'0”	192	Notre Dame	Undrafted 2013, Last played for Seattle Seahawks as practice squad member in 2014
#77	Chris Watt	OL	6'3”	280	Notre Dame	3rd round 2014, San Diego Chargers
#78	Kevin Brent	DB	5'11”	196	Oklahoma	Last known to have transferred out of OU in 2011.
#79	Jerod Askew	LB	6'0”	230	Tennessee	Dismissed from Tennessee in 2011.
#80	Lamar Miller	RB	5'11”	205	Miami (FL)	4th round 2012, Miami Dolphins
#81	Chris Burnette	OL	6'2”	300	Georgia	Undrafted 2013, Signed briefly with Miami Dolphins following 2013 draft. Currently free agent.
#82	Justin Green	DB	5'10”	178	Illinois	Undrafted 2013, currently with New England Patriots
#83	Donavan Tate	ATH	6'2”	205	N. Carolina	Currently with the San Diego Padres of Minor league baseball.
#84	Stephon Gilmore	ATH	6'1”	180	South Carolina	1st round 2012, Buffalo Bills
#85	David Barrent	OL	6'8”	290	Michigan St.	Left Michigan St. in 2011 due to lower back problems.
#86	Kevin Graf	OL	6'6”	301	USC	Undrafted 2014, currently with Philadelphia Eagles practice squad.
#87	Damario Jeffery	ATH	6'3”	215	South Carolina	Out of football. Spent some time as athlete intern for USC, currently grad student (Linkedin)
#88	Eric Shrive	OL	6'7”	302	Penn St.	Currently sales consultant in Pennsylvania (Linkedin)
#89	Corey Adams	DT	6'3”	277	Arizona St.	Currently Grad student (Linkedin)
#90	Duron Carter	WR	6'2”	183	Ohio St.	Undrafted 2013, currently with Indianapolis Colts
#91	Chris Whaley	ATH	6'3”	232	Texas	Last known to have tried out with Dallas Cowboys in May 2015.
#92	Brandon McGee	DB	5'11”	186	Miami (FL)	5th round 2013, St. Louis Rams
#93	DeOnte Arnett	DE	6'3”	243	Maryland	Currently in real estate (linkedin)
#94	Fletcher Cox	DE	6'4”	240	Mississippi St.	1st round 2012, Philadelphia Eagles
#95	Abry Jones	DT	6'3”	273	Georgia	Undrafted 2013, currently with Jacksonville Jaguars
#96	Morrell Presley	WR	6'4”	215	UCLA	Signed briefly with Seattle Seahawks in July 2014.
#97	David Oku	RB	5'10”	186	Tennessee	Last known to have played for Arkansas State university.
#98	Byron Moore	DB	6'0”	188	USC	Last known to have played for the University of Tennessee.
#99	Alshon Jeffery	WR	6'3”	214	South Carolina	2nd round 2012, Chicago Bears
#100	John Martinez	OL	6‘2’’	264	USC	Undrafted, Last known to have signed with Portland Thunder(AFL) in July 2014, no NFL team

* = Five star recruit

How Accurate are Rivals Rankings for the Class of 2009?

In our analysis, we want to see if there’s a correlation between:

1. Rivals ranking and likelihood of being drafted into the NFL.

2. Rivals ranking and likelihood of becoming a mainstay NFL player.

To do this, we broke the list of 100 players into three tiers. Players ranked #1-33 make up tier 1, and these are the five star recruits. Players ranked 34-67 are the first half of four star recruits, and players 68-100 are the second half of four star recruits in this sample of 100 players. We will then observe how many players were drafted into the NFL and how many players are mainstay NFL players for each tier.

We make a point of mainstay NFL players because sometimes a drafted player is ousted from the league rather quickly. Other times, undrafted players become a major coup. There are also many players who latch on to a team as exclusively offseason players, but they are usually cut once the season begins. Players tagged with a ‘briefly signed’ under their description in the above table are usually of this variety. So by ’mainstay NFL players’, we are precisely referring to NFL players that don’t fall into this category. In other words, we are referring to players that have long term value on NFL rosters, though of course their caliber can still vary. If we assume that Rivals rankings are accurate, the amount of players should decrease by tier for both variables. Here’s what we found:

Fraction of Players Drafted

Tier 1: 5-Star Recruits	17/33
Tier 2: 4-Star Recruits (ranked 34 through 67)	14/34
Tier 3: 4-Star Recruits (ranked 68 through 100)	8/33

Fraction of Mainstay NFL Players

Tier 1	22/33
Tier 2	16/34
Tier 3	11/33

Notice that for both variables, there is a decrease in the number of players by tier, or as the ranking gets lower. This seems to contradict some of the sentiment out there that rankings given out by Rivals and other recruiting agencies are unreliable and merely speculation.

But actually, what people mean when they say to take Rivals rankings with a grain of salt is that a lot of elite NFL players were not high ranking recruits. In other words, in regards to the players who do make it to the NFL, there is little correlation between Rivals ranking and talent level. Next, to analyze this, we charted the distribution of players by round drafted for each tier (using the general assumption that higher drafted players are more talented).

And indeed we see that there isn’t a great difference in distribution across rounds between the three tiers. If we are to really get technical, the difference is not statistically significant. This is for talent level coming out of college. For the professional level, just glancing through the top 100 list we find current elite players at the top of the list (#4 Sheldon Richardson, #9 Vontaze Burfict) as well as at the bottom of the list (#94 Fletcher Cox, #99 Alshon Jeffery).

Therefore, at least from our analysis of the 2009 as well as 2010 class, we'd like to conclude that Rivals rankings are accurate to the point that they can predict likelihood of making it into the NFL, but not caliber of player within the NFL.