Travelling carbon free for about the cost of a salad in New York? Yes, please.
This is the good news that’s emerged from a study that found the damaging effects of tourism emissions could eventually be eliminated if travellers paid an average of just US$11 per trip.
Our research, published recently in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism, was a collaboration between researchers from the universities of Waterloo (Canada), Lund (Sweden), Canterbury (New Zealand), and NHTV Breda (Netherlands).
Tourism: A Carbon-intensive Industry
Tourism is highly dependent on fossil fuels, and is a significant contributor to climate change. Recent conservative estimates conclude tourism, including transport, accommodation, and activities, contributes approximately 5% of total anthropogenic emissions worldwide. That’s more than all but five countries of the world.
Despite improved energy efficiency, though, absolute emissions from tourism continue to expand. This is because of strong growth in international tourism and increasing numbers of people travelling, as well as travel frequency and distance.
Our study projected that if tourism continues on its current business-as-usual pathway then CO₂ emissions would reach three billion tonnes by 2050, an increase of 135% on present emissions.
If the tourism industry is to achieve even the high end of targets to limit warming to below 2℃, it needs to cut present emissions by up to 70% by 2050. Using scenario modelling, we looked at what kinds of offsetting and abatement measures could achieve such a reduction.
Strategies for Decarbonisation
We argue in our paper that the most effective strategy for tourism to meet emissions reduction targets involves not just targeted carbon offsets but also strategic energy saving and renewable energy initiatives within the industry.
Abatement of emissions from tourism can be achieved through investments in energy efficiency and the introduction and expansion of renewable power and biofuels. Yet the cost of emissions abatement varies by sub-sector.
Accommodation, which is responsible for about 27% of emissions, can actually save money by reducing emissions. The aviation sector (52% of emissions), on the other hand, has the highest abatement cost because of limited options for low-carbon fuel substitution.
Two key findings emerged from the analysis. First, investing in abatement (primarily energy efficiency and renewable energy) and using offsets to strategically target the challenges of fuel switching in aviation was the most cost-effective strategy.
Second, the cost of a 70% emissions reduction target is manageable given the total size of the tourism economy.
Cheaper Than Existing Tourism Taxes
The decarbonisation of global tourism requires significant investments in absolute terms – starting at just under US$1 billion annually, beginning in the 2020s. But the relative cost of this investment is actually less than 0.1% of the estimated global tourism economy in 2020, increasing to 3.6% in 2050.
If the cost was divided equally among all domestic and international trips it works out at about US$11 per trip.
Even if the costs were divided only among the 1.8 billion international arrivals expected in 2030 the cost per arrival would still be only approximately US$38. In other words, on a user-pays basis, the cost to have a tourism industry compatible with global climate policy is still less than many already existing tourism taxes and fees.
