This week might represent the beginning of the end for international cooperation. All the treaties, alliances, and unions that have incrementally strengthened the ties between nations over the last several centuries have suddenly been revealed as a house of cards, which a wayward puff of air known as Brexit might suddenly blow away.
Surely this must be an overstatement. The decision this week of British voters to stay inside the European Union or make the unprecedented move to leave can’t be that important. Brett Arends writes in MarketWatch that’s it’s really all a bit of a scam: If the voters decide to leave, the British government will negotiate “a face-saving formula that gives the illusion of Brexit without much substance.”
In any case, the U.K. was always iffy about the European project, maintaining more than just physical distance from the continent. For instance, the U.K. has more opt-out clauses than any other E.U. member. There are even some Brits who find the Chunnel—the underwater rail line linking the U.K. and France—an unacceptable infringement of their country’s inalienable right to be an island.
If the referendum vote on Thursday does favor the leaveniks, the world will not end. The E.U. will simply proceed with their continental business, turning a cold shoulder to those ingrates across the Channel.
As an example of the snowballing disdain, French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron recently cut Britain down to size when he said that the country, post-Brexit, would be no more important than the tiny island of Guernsey. German bankers will yawn, French diplomats will sniff, and Belgian bureaucrats will titter nervously before they all go back to their paperwork. The markets will shudder and then regain their equilibrium.
Or…
Humpty Dumpty will begin to wobble out of control. And we, along with all the king’s horses and all the king’s men, will watch in horror as the fragile egg topples off the wall and goes splat, never to be reconstituted. The U.K. will split apart as Scotland goes ahead with a second vote on its own independence. Referendums on E.U. membership will follow in France and in the Netherlands. Brexit would be a tipping point for the Swedes and their growing Euroskepticism. Economic contagion could spread to Ireland, which is so closely linked to the British economy, and to Portugal, which is so close to default.
