Does Global Warming Mean More or Less Snow?

As first glance, asking whether global warming results in more snow may seem like a silly question because obviously, if it gets warm enough, there is no snow.
Does Global Warming Mean More or Less Snow?
Welcome to Boston—and two feet of snow from one storm. Peter Eimon/Flickr, CC BY-SA
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As first glance, asking whether global warming results in more snow may seem like a silly question because obviously, if it gets warm enough, there is no snow. Consequently, deniers of climate change have used recent snow dumps to cast doubt on a warming climate from human influences. Yet they could not be more wrong.

To understand the connection, we need to look at what conditions make for the heaviest snowfalls. Then, we can look at how climate change is affecting those conditions, especially temperatures in the atmosphere and oceans, during winters. Studying these factors reveals that there is a higher chance of heavy snow storms in North America but the length of the snow season is already shrinking due to global warming.

Goldilocks Temperatures

There is a saying that it can be “too cold to snow“! Of course, this is a myth but it has a basis in fact because the atmosphere gets freeze dried when it is very cold. That’s because the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold depends very strongly on temperature. Under cold conditions, the snow is likely to consist of very small crystals and sometimes is very light and fluffy and like ”diamond dust".

By contrast, the heaviest snowfalls occur with surface temperatures from about 28°F to 32°F—just below the freezing point. Of course, once it gets much above freezing point, the snow turns to rain. So there is a “Goldilocks” set of conditions that are just right to result in a super snow storm. And these conditions are becoming more likely in mid-winter because of human-induced climate change.

The first blizzard of 2015 as viewed from space. (NOAA/NASA, CC BY)
The first blizzard of 2015 as viewed from space. NOAA/NASA, CC BY
Kevin Trenberth
Kevin Trenberth
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