The March 2012 seasonally adjusted unemployment number, published on April 6 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as 8.2 percent, is 0.1 percent lower than February. This is disappointing, not because it barely changed from the prior month, but more so because the BLS is still underreporting the unemployment numbers.
What we see in black and white are the numbers of those that still draw unemployment compensation. Nothing is actually said about all those who have fallen by the wayside because they no longer are eligible for unemployment compensation.
The BLS does publish a table that is called “Alternative measures of labor underutilization,” which includes six different unemployment categories, U-1 to U-6, and provides two types of figures, not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted. The seasonally adjusted numbers exclude the “effects of regular or seasonal patterns,” according to the BLS.
“Over the course of a year, the size of the nation’s labor force and the levels of employment and unemployment undergo regularly occurring fluctuations. These events may result from seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools,” the BLS states.
The BLS reports category U-3 as the official unemployment number. For March, categories U-1 and U-2 are the lowest at 4.6 percent and 4.5 percent respectively, while U-5 and U-6, at 9.6 percent and 14.5 percent, include all those who no longer receive unemployment compensation.
When comparing BLS unemployment numbers to statistical information from other forecasters such as Gallup, a financial trend forecaster, the difference is minimal. For March, the Gallup numbers are 0.1 percent lower than the BLS numbers, a minute difference.
“U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined to 8.4% in March from 9.1% in February, while Gallup’s seasonally adjusted rate fell to 8.1% from 8.6% in February,” announced Gallup in its latest unemployment number release.
There are others, such as the United States Misery Index, which calculates economic health by adding the BLS unemployment rate to the inflation rate. But, most of them are different ways of using the BLS numbers and add nothing to the unemployment debate.
