Democrats Could Have Trouble Keeping the Senate in 2024 With Several Members in Tight Races

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) speaks during a press conference held to celebrate U.S. President Joe Biden cancelling student debt on Capitol Hill on in Washington on Sept. 29, 2022. (Jemal Countess/Getty Images for We, The 45 Million)

News Analysis

At least three Senate Democrats are facing a challenging environment or stiff competition if they ultimately decide to run for reelection in 2024.

Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) are all now in what electoral predictors deem to be “toss-up” races. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), is also in a unique position, having left the Democratic Party to become an independent (while still caucusing with Democrats) and would be facing a Democratic challenger and a Republican challenger should she run for reelection.

Manchin

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has already begun hitting Manchin with attack ads directed at West Virginia voters, portraying him as an elitist for attending the World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski town of Davos and labeling him “Maserati Manchin.”

The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has recently rated the Senate race in West Virginia as “leans Republican.” Manchin has not made it clear if he is running for reelection for the Senate, saying on NBC’s Meet the Press “everything is on the table.” He also didn’t rule out a presidential bid.

If Manchin does decide to run for reelection in 2024 he could face a strong Republican opponent in West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, who is said to be considering running for the Senate and has good approval ratings, according to a recent poll from Morning Consult.

Tester and Brown

Tester could also be up against a strong Republican opponent if he were to decide to run for reelection to represent Montana in the Senate. He could potentially be facing Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), who was recently elected to the House after serving as President Donald Trump’s first Secretary of the Interior. Trump won Montana by more than 16 percentage points over candidate Joe Biden in 2020.

He is the only Democrat to hold statewide office in Montana and his Senate seat is also in the “toss-up” category according to the Center for Politics.

Meanwhile, in Ohio, a changing political landscape could leave Brown vulnerable. So far, he is the only Senate Democrat in a competitive race that has announced his reelection bid.

Ohio Republicans won every partisan statewide office, including for governor and U.S. Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, and added to their majority in the state legislature.

Ohio has been moving further to the right since 2016, when Trump won the Buckeye State by a large margin over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, according to a study by the American Enterprise Institute.

Nevertheless, Brown is considered a political institution in Ohio, starting his political career in 1975 as a state representative, then becoming secretary of state of Ohio, a member of Congress, and finally a senator.

In addition to Manchin, the NRSC has been running attack ads against Brown and Tester in their respective states and online, saying the senators should “retire or get fired.”

Sinema

Lastly, the Senate race in Arizona in 2024 appears to be one that will be the most attention-grabbing and unique for Democrats.

Sinema, who has changed her party status to independent, has not yet decided if she is going to run for reelection. But if she were to do so she would be running against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and a Republican challenger making it a three-way race.

The senator from Arizona presently caucuses with Democrats but Republicans have been trying to convince her to caucus with them in the Senate or even change parties again to avoid such an eventuality.

Recently, Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), who is reported to be best friends with Sinema in the chamber, told the Hill: “Obviously we’d love to have her become a Republican or at least caucus [with] Republicans. That would make things a little more clear.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Manchin, Tester, Brown, and Sinema but did not receive a response at the time of press.