“If I decide to run against Andrew Cuomo in 2018, I am confident that I will beat him,” Rep. Chris Gibson said when we spoke in midtown Manhattan last week. Gibson, a Republican, represents the 19th congressional district, which covers near Albany and its eastern, western, and southern surrounding areas.
Gibson’s use of the conditional “if,” though, could fairly be described as questionable. In February, the congressman formed what is now a well-staffed gubernatorial exploratory committee.
That committee, which launched the website GibsonforNY.com, is already producing a broad range of position papers and reaching out for support to NYS Republican officials. It has convinced many within Republican and Democratic camps throughout the state that Gibson is all but assured to enter the race.
However, if as expected he decides to run, his prediction of victory would seem to be challenged by the political realities of New York State, which has registered Democrats holding a 2–1 advantage over registered Republicans.
Such an advantage in voter party registration has been credited with the Democrats’ control of the two NYS U.S. senator positions. Former Sen. Al D'Amato’s re-election in 1994 to a seat he had held for two previous terms was the last time a Republican has been elected to that position.
Still, what would seem at first glance to put Gibson’s optimism even more to the test would be the past three governor’s races in the state. After three terms of Republican Gov.George Pataki, a moderate known for his alliances on key economic issues with Democrats in the state assembly and senate, the Democratic candidates have glided to easy victories over their Republican opponents in the past three elections.
Eliot Spitzer (who resigned in March 2008 in the wake of a prostitution scandal) garnered 69 percent of the vote in 2006 against then former state assembly leader John Faso; current Gov. Andrew Cuomo collected 62 percent in his first term victory in 2010 against upstate businessman Carl Paladino and won 54 percent in his 2014 re-election to a second term against Westchester County Executive Robert Astorino.
