Listening to government officials speak about climate change, one could easily assume that their plans were based on settled science. We know, with a high degree of certainty, they expect us to believe, that climate catastrophe lies just ahead if we do not dramatically reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The best way to do this, they say, is to ween ourselves off fossil fuels, the source of 86 percent of the world energy supply.
For it to be rational to spend vast sums attempting such a transition, several conditions would have to be met.
We would have to know, with a high degree of confidence, that future global warming, if it occurs, will be dangerous. In the past 150 years, we have seen a rise in the global temperature statistic of only about 0.8 degrees Celsius despite a supposed 40 percent increase in atmospheric CO2 levels. This slight warming has been highly beneficial as we emerged from the Little Ice Age. So, it is only future rise that is problematic. And for it to be a public policy issue at all, that rise would have to be dangerous.
