WASHINGTON—The U.S. political primary election season is in full swing as Americans choose candidates for the presidency of their nation and, arguably, the job of de facto leader of the world. In the wake of recent primaries in vote-rich states such as Florida and Ohio, Republican candidate Donald Trump has a commanding lead over his rivals Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich. Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton has an even larger advantage over her challenger Sen. Bernie Sanders. To quote the American baseball player Yogi Berra, “it ain’t over ’til it’s over,” but the field finally seems to be sorting itself out.
To date, the campaign debate has been dominated by multiple themes that could ultimately impact people outside the United States—trade, immigration, and terrorism, to name just a few. Americans’ attitudes on these issues could well influence the outcome in November. And the positions the candidates take on these issues may foreshadow, or constrain, what policies the next U.S. president will pursue. Moreover, the mood of the electorate may influence votes in congressional elections for both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, reinforcing foreign-policy choices made by the new president.
Trade is a recurrent campaign theme, despite the fact that global trade ranks low overall on the American public’s list of concerns, as registered by a Pew Research Center survey: 31 percent rate it as a top priority. Candidates in both parties have repeatedly tied the issue to jobs and the economy and promised to be tougher on trade, especially with regard to China.
