China’s Premier Says China Keeps Growing Fast—His Own Index Begs to Differ

Markets aren’t drinking the Kool-Aid
China’s Premier Says China Keeps Growing Fast—His Own Index Begs to Differ
A Chinese retail clerk waits for customers at a shop on August 28, 2015 in Beijing, China. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
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Because of the endless stream of negative news coming out of China, Premier Li Keqiang had to grasp this opportunity to blow his own horn at the World Economic Forum meeting in Dalian Sept. 9.

“China is not a source of global financial risk,” Li said. “China is a growth engine of the global economy.”

He is convinced China will keep growing at high speed and that the transformation of the economy is progressing as the regime finds new sources of growth and undertakes reforms.

The only problem with these statements is that his own “Li Keqiang Index” is saying the exact opposite.

According to a leaked memo by the U.S. Department of State, Li told a U.S. official in 2007 that the official numbers were unreliable and that he uses three proxies to better estimate growth in the economy: railway cargo volume, electricity consumption, and new loans disbursed by banks.

According to an analysis by Credit Suisse, which replicated the index using exactly the three inputs Li mentioned, growth in China has just about come to a standstill.

The monthly change in the Credit Suisse Li Keqiang Index. (Credit Suisse)
The monthly change in the Credit Suisse Li Keqiang Index. Credit Suisse
Valentin Schmid
Valentin Schmid
Author
Valentin Schmid is a former business editor for the Epoch Times. His areas of expertise include global macroeconomic trends and financial markets, China, and Bitcoin. Before joining the paper in 2012, he worked as a portfolio manager for BNP Paribas in Amsterdam, London, Paris, and Hong Kong.
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