As with all data coming out of China, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Some of it is higher than reality, some lower than reality and for some nobody really knows what it is exactly.
However, most of the time, it can indicate a pretty reliable trend. For example, nobody believes that GDP growth was 7.3 percent in the first quarter, but the trajectory is clearly going down.
Now another number has hit the official limelight: Capital outflows.
According to official data, China recorded the highest balance of payments deficit ever in the first quarter of 2015. It was only $80 billion but it means that a record of $159 billion in capital left the country to look for better returns elsewhere.
Except for one quarter in each 2012 and 2014, capital was always going into China—at least officially—but now we have the third negative reading for capital and trade combined. First because money keeps leaving and second because trade has collapsed recently.
On the surface, Chinese officials aren’t worried, but they should be: “Recent capital outflows represent an adjustment that is within expectations. One can’t equate them with illegal and secret capital flight,” said Guan Tao, the head of the balance of payments department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange earlier this year.
