YANGON, Burma/Myanmar—The sweeping reforms Burma announced in 2011 after a half-century of crushing military rule seemed too good to be true to much of the outside world. And to some degree, they were.
Burma citizens are experiencing an unprecedented degree of economic and political freedom, but the balance of power has changed little. Most of those in charge are former military men who have just swapped their khakis for suits and longyi—the sarong-type skirt traditionally favored by both men and women in Burma.
Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whom the junta kept under house arrest for years, now tours the country stumping for votes. But even if her National League for Democracy wins the Nov. 8 election in a landslide, the odds are that the generals and their cronies will continue to dominate both politics and the economy.
Many familiar with Burma’s government say that while it has made significant reforms in the past five years, it still faces a long journey to achieve a stable, prosperous democracy.
“This is a huge improvement and we have to keep it in context for what it is,” said Daniel Aguirre, legal adviser in Yangon for the International Commission of Jurists. But he adds, “The prevailing narrative of ‘open for business and everything’s fine’ is completely, way off.”
Conditions for the majority of Burma citizens living in the countryside are little changed. Many of them survive on less than $1.25 a day, and with per capita GDP of about $810, it is one of the poorest countries in Asia.
Many political prisoners were released after reforms began, but dissidents are still frequently jailed, and the press, though not openly controlled by the government, often censors itself out of fear. The military control most government appointments and operate with virtual impunity.
“If you’re looking at the big picture of, ‘Is the military stepping down tomorrow?’ Well, of course not. But I’m not sure anyone who ... really understood history would have expected that,” said Vicky Bowman, a former British ambassador to Burma who now runs a nongovernmental organization in Yangon, the Burma Center for Responsible Business.
