Biden is projected to win the South Carolina Democratic primary this weekend, which will likely cement his candidacy and silence his rivals and critics who question his age and competence.
Following the New Hampshire primary, the Biden campaign has indicated that the president is preparing for a potential rematch with Trump.
Moving ahead, Biden aims to win back the hearts of key voter demographics that helped him clinch victory in 2020. Recent polls indicate that key pillars of the Democratic base, including black, Hispanic, and young voters, are drifting away from Biden.
The president is facing a decline in support, particularly among black males, similar to trends observed among working-class white voters, says Karen Hult, a political science professor at Virginia Tech.
Some African American voters, along with Hispanics and Asian Americans, are also influenced by the perception that national Democrats are overly “woke,” she adds.
The winner of the South Carolina Democratic primary will receive the state’s 65 delegates. In addition to Biden, major Democrat candidates include Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and author Marianne Williamson. The Minnesota congressman came in second in New Hampshire, gaining nearly 20 percent of the vote.
Some Democrats believe Phillips’s campaign has failed to generate significant momentum or enthusiasm. As a result, they expect him to withdraw from the race soon.
Another challenge for Biden is that the border crisis has risen to the forefront in recent months, with record numbers of migrants illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. According to a recent Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, immigration has surpassed inflation as the top issue facing the nation.
Pundits believe this could be a defining moment for the Trump campaign. During a speech in Las Vegas on Jan. 27, Trump dedicated a significant portion of his 80-minute speech to the issue of illegal immigration.
“Our border has become a weapon of mass destruction. ... It’s our destruction,” he told his supporters.
Recent polls indicate that Biden has the lowest approval rating on the issue of immigration. If the problem remains unaddressed, it could pose a significant challenge for the incumbent president in the upcoming November election, according to experts.
The president has blamed opposition from House Republicans on a potential deal with the Senate that would grant him more emergency authority to close the border. He claims he has exhausted all available options.
Pollster Mark Penn believes Biden has waited too long to address the issue and may not be able to take immigration off the table.
Ron Klink, a former Democrat congressman from Pennsylvania, however, holds a different view. He criticizes the GOP’s divide and failure to back a deal on the border issue. He says American voters are smart and will realize the substantial difference between Republicans and Democrats before they cast their votes in November.
Recently, young protesters have disrupted Biden’s rallies on multiple occasions, creating another challenge for the president.
Many young voters have expressed concern about the situation in Gaza, causing some Democrats to worry about the party’s appeal in that demographic.
Young voters turned out in record numbers in 2020 and overwhelmingly supported then-candidate Biden. However, recent polls show a significant fall in the president’s popularity among the youth.
Kaivan Shroff, a Democrat commentator and press secretary for Dream for America, a Gen Z-led nonprofit, is skeptical of these polls. He is confident that Biden will remain popular among young voters because he’s prioritizing a range of issues that matter most to this demographic, such as climate change, abortion, and forgiving student loan debt.
“Democrats way outperformed expectations in November 2023,” he said, referring to races in several states across the country, including Virginia’s legislative elections, Kentucky’s gubernatorial race, as well as Ohio’s ballot initiatives on pro-abortion rights and marijuana legalization.
“Young voters care about the issues—particularly abortion—and showed up in 2023 to make their voices heard.”
Some Democratic strategists believe that if the 2024 national election comes down to a choice between Trump and Biden, the incumbent will be the preferred candidate among younger voters.
