After years without any progress on solving the Syrian conflict, a major international summit has been convened in Vienna to try and reach an agreement on a new way forward. The United States, Russia, several European countries, and Middle Eastern states are attending; so is Assad’s ally Iran, after Washington finally agreed to let it in. Also at the table are Turkey and Iran’s deadly rival Saudi Arabia, both dedicated foes of the Syrian regime.
Under discussion is whether Bashar al-Assad can remain in power during a “political transition”—a strategy long pursued by Russia, though so far to little end. If the assembled powers finally agree to it, that'll be a major victory for Moscow.
The stakes could scarcely be higher. If Russia can corral this array of countries into tolerating Assad, even for the short term, it will have turned an initial triumph into an even greater achievement. But if it fails, it will have to cope with both dire embarrassment and a tricky military situation.
