Featuring the 6-7 Colts, 6-7 Texans, 5-8 Jaguars, and the 3-10 Titans, the AFC South is the weakest division in the league. But by virtue of being weak, the NFL division format gives whichever team wins the division a special opportunity to enter the playoffs. Unlike the NFC East, another weak, competitive division, the playoff implications for the AFC South are fairly straightforward.
With the Titans now out of contention, below is an outline of what it will take for the Texans, Colts, or Jaguars to win the division crown (omitting ties since they are so rare).
To determine who wins the AFC South, Week 15’s Texans-Colt bout is critical. Whichever team wins that match will win the division if and only if the following does not happen.
- Winner loses Week 16 and 17; loser wins Week 16 and 17
OR
- Winner loses Week 16 and 17; Jaguars win Week 15, 16, 17
Meanwhile the Jaguars take the division if and only if they win Weeks 15, 16, and 17. If this prerequisite is met, then the following must also occur:
- If the Colts beat the Texans in Week 15, the Colts must lose both Weeks 16 and 17.
- If the Texans beat the Colts in Week 15, the Texans must lose Weeks 16 and 17, and the Colts can’t win both Weeks 16 and 17.
Note that the Jaguars play the Texans in Week 17, so the Texans losing and Jaguars winning can be accomplished in one shot there. Therefore, if Jaguars fans had to pick a side, they should root for a Texans victory.
