A Government Shutdown Over Spending? BRING IT ON!

The National Debt Clock in New York on July 7, 2023. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

Commentary

As the national debt crossed $33,000,000,000,000 (that’s $33 trillion, if you get confused by so many zeros), and the nation’s debt increased to a $250,000 per taxpayer, five hard-line deficit hawks in the House Freedom Caucus drew a bold line in the sand on Sept. 19 and again on Sept. 21 against fellow Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s leadership. The five sided with Democrats to oppose a vote to proceed with a vote to fund the Pentagon, which they largely support. But before supporting that vote, the hard-liners demand that Mr. McCarthy commit to bringing discretionary spending down to pre-pandemic levels of $1.47 trillion without “gimmicks.”

Mr. McCarthy was forced to set aside a scheduled vote for a stopgap, 30-day measure to continue spending, but with an 8 percent cut over that period, that would have allowed Capitol Hill another 30 days to sort out appropriations before the scheduled government shutdown on Oct. 1. As a consequence, we’re less than 10 days away from a government shutdown.

The Speaker’s Peril

Mr. McCarthy’s speakership is now in peril because budget hawks in his conference believe that he has failed them in the past and will do so again.

During the debt ceiling debate in May, Mr. McCarthy promised to address budget concerns in the appropriations process. He had months to align support, even as Congress was adjourned during the summer. But now, at the Eleventh Hour in the appropriations process, the Republican leadership has yet to pass—or even to debate—any of the 12 appropriations bills. Two attempts this week to bring the Defense appropriations bill to the House floor have now failed. And on Sept. 22, Mr. McCarthy said the GOP must pass a continuing resolution to keep funding the government because he can only pass four of the appropriations bills in the House before Oct. 1.

The hard-liners have said, “No!”

Hard-Liners Have No Choice

I tend to agree. Just as you don’t give an alcoholic a bottle of whiskey on the promise that he won’t drink it, you shouldn’t give a continuing resolution to keep spending to this Congress on the promise that they will reform their spending. It takes a hard reckoning of the type that a government shutdown creates.

The central issue dividing the GOP hard-liners from the GOP establishment and the Democrats is simple: The United States spends $7 trillion a year, but it takes in only $5 trillion a year in revenue; we have a $2 trillion a year structural deficit. If we continue doing that in the coming year, the interest on the now $33 trillion debt—will hit $1 trillion a year, breaching a troubling psychological threshold.

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Threatening a government shutdown—or even bringing one about—is about the only leverage that the GOP hard-liners have to compel Mr. McCarthy to abide by his promise to the floor a vote on each of the 12 appropriations bills so that they can become an opening gambit in budget negotiations with the Democrat Senate and the White House. Right now, GOP budget hard-liners fear that the speaker and moderate Republicans—particularly those from New York whose victories in “swing” and Democrat districts in 2022 created the House majority—will move to join Democrats to force a vote on an omnibus spending bill. This would effectively hand control of the House to the Democrats and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). It would assuredly trigger a “motion to vacate” from the hard-liners; effectively, a vote to remove Mr. McCarthy from his Speaker position.

An omnibus bill, which amounts to an up-or-down bill on the entire slate of appropriations bills, is anathema to the budget hawks who want to consider each appropriations measure separately under what’s called “regular order,” the process by which appropriation bills are offered, debated, amended, and voted on. That puts House members on record as to how they voted. An omnibus bill—effectively the House leadership calling all of the shots—would allow rank-and-file members to obfuscate their votes by saying, “Well, I had to vote for the omnibus to get funding for (insert the member’s local pork barrel project here).”

How the Shutdown Will Play Out

Establishment media will play up the looming government shutdown in the same way that they fearmonger a low-level Category One hurricane striking coastal New Jersey after Labor Day. They'll take cues on their reportage from the Democratic National Committee, the House Democratic Conference, and the White House in order to amplify Biden administration fear-mongering as leverage against the GOP budget hawks. It will appear to consumers of the big legacy news organizations that the shutdown is a veritable catastrophe with Republicans to blame. (In the 2013 shutdown, former President Barack Obama fear-mongered the shutdown so aggressively that he ordered barriers installed around the World War II Memorial, which is outdoors. Veterans of that conflict, many in wheelchairs, promptly knocked down the barriers and commemorated their fallen brothers anyway. There’s a reason that they’re called “The Greatest Generation.”

The reality is that the shutdown won’t likely affect average citizens, including Social Security recipients and veterans. Mail will still be delivered. Our armed forces will still stand on guard. America’s spy agencies will operate. But business in nonessential agencies will seize up. Your passport application or renewal (including the one that I submitted a few weeks ago) will likely be delayed unless you have urgent travel plans. If you have camping plans with your children in a national park or plan to take them to the Smithsonian, you'll be out of luck. Both will likely be closed.

But it will be inconvenience, not a crisis. And as you bemoan the inconvenience, remember that the nation whose parks, heritage, and accomplishments you wanted to show your children might not exist for them and their children if we don’t bring its Capitol Hill spendthrifts to heel.