Analysis of the 17th CCP National Congress
In 2002, during Chinese Communist Party's 16th National Congress, Jiang Zemin, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader who initiated the persecution of Falun Gong, stepped down from power, but only on the surface.
Making arrangements within the CCP interior, Jiang forcefully inserted his confidants, such as Zeng Qinghong, Huang Ju, Luo Gan, Li Changchun, Wu Guanzheng and Jia Qinglin, into the CCP's Politiburo Standing Committee.
Through this strategy, Jiang was able to effectively control the Chinese communist regime and continue to carry out the persecution of Falun Gong he imposed in 1999.
Five years later, the 17th CCP's Congress convened on October 16, 2007, under many watchful eyes. The congress is assembling during a time when the CCP is facing unprecedented disintegration and collapse—27 million people have withdrawn from the CCP and its affiliated organizations, and the numbers continue to grow. What effect will the 17th National Congress have on historical development? How should the CCP and its fate be viewed? There are three types of analyses regarding these questions.
1. The 17th CCP Congress Can't Halt Its Inevitable Demise
The congressional assembly that we see today in no way resembles the future of Chinese authorities. Regardless of today's congressional results, the 18th National Congress is unlikely to take place five years from now, as the CCP is rapidly heading toward thorough disintegration and collapse.
While claims of the CCP dissolving in a few short years may sound extreme to some, it is not a baseless theory. In fact, the phenomenon of withdrawing from the Party has been regarded as the most basic, peaceful path toward the disintegration of the current Chinese regime. Over 27 million people have already quit the CCP, and there are roughly one million more withdrawing per month. By 2008, the projected number of people will surpass 30 million.
If people continue to withdraw from the Party at the same pace, by 2012 (the next scheduled congressional assembly), over 90 million will have quit the CCP, or one in every 15 Chinese citizens. In the wake of this growing trend, the CCP will not be able to sustain itself against the significant backlash of Chinese society.
The CCP is continuing its rule of China as if nothing is wrong, but they must work diligently to preserve this charade. It is exhaustively gathering and utilizing all tactics known throughout history to control power in society, paying particular attention to suppressing information of its cruel and evil governance.
Yet, as the trend toward withdrawing from the CCP snowballs, the damning information and news about the regime spreads more widely and thoroughly throughout Chinese society. The CCP's information blockade is doomed to completely collapse some day soon. When they can no longer sustain this information blockade, the CCP itself will collapse.
2. Securing Power Can't Change Fate
The fate of CCP officials could be described by the old Chinese proverb, “In a broken nest there are few whole eggs.” Using the power they held, Jiang's Gang initiated the ruthless persecution on Falun Gong and committed enormous crimes. Because they continue to hide behind the CCP, they have still not been brought to justice. They use the regime to control Chinese society, while fearlessly committing crimes throughout the country.
At the recent 17th CCP's Congress, there was talk of key personnel engaged in persecuting Falun Gong—including Zeng Qinghong and Luo Gan—may all be thrown out of power. Jiang, therefore, is taking every measure to strategically insert colleagues such as Zhou Yongkang, the head of the Ministry of Public Security, to the power center of the Party. Jiang will rely on Zhou to continue the persecution, while providing undisclosed benefits to gang members who have stepped down.
However, if this Jiang's gang conspiracy won another temporary success, their days are numbered. Under the enormous wave of Chinese people withdrawing from the CCP, the regime is as fragile as an egg and is in great danger of being dissolved at any time. When the Chinese communist regime eventually collapses, Jiang's Gang will completely lose what currently protects them from being brought to justice for their unpardoned crimes. As the entire Party is being overturned like a nest, how could Jiang survive as a complete egg?”
3. Citizens Will Soon Openly Boycott the CCP's Tyranny
In November 2004, after the special editorials Nine Commentaries on Communist Party were published, the world saw an unprecedented trend toward boycotting the CCP. Correspondingly, because of the CCP's extremely brutal rule in mainland China, people there can only boycott the CCP's tyranny in the form of surging undercurrent. These two currents, one underground, another on the surface have coordinated with each other to topple the CCP's evil tyranny.
No paper can wrap up a fire. No matter how strictly the CCP suppresses the truth, the facts will be exposed to the world. No matter how ruthlessly the CCP suppresses the anger of ordinary people, this anger will eventually erupt. People in mainland China are bound to openly boycott and confront the CCP's tyranny in its final days.
On one hand, the CCP's insufferable arrogance is being eroded in the process of internal power struggle. On the other hand, inspired by the truth, there is a growing courage among people in mainland China. Chinese people who have feared the wicked CCP and who have remained silent until now will soon voice their true feelings.
Today's 17th CCP's Congress may become one of the top funny stories among various conferences held by the CCP in the future. Clearly the big wave of withdrawals from the CCP will soon turn over the old nest of the Party, even as officials talk loudly about plans for the “New, Great Project for Party Construction.”
Those inside the Party remain confused, while outside observers are very clear on the matter. Hu Jintao may not know the best course of action, but the people watching do: this is an important opportunity which, once lost, will not return.
If Hu can muster the foresight shared by so many throughout the world, and take this opportunity to dissolve the CCP once and for all, all the members of Jiang's gang will be captured at once and swiftly brought to justice. That would be a real “Great Project.”