Alberta’s conservatives continue to be united under the UCP, while the NDP remains the dominant party of the left. Both parties have undergone shifts since the 2019 election, though not to the same extent. The NDP is still led by Rachel Notley, who was premier from 2015 to 2019, while the UCP has a new leader with a more libertarian slant in Premier Danielle Smith, compared to Jason Kenney, the premier from 2019 to 2022.
As the election gets underway, Smith and Notley are battling for swing voters in Calgary, with the United Conservative Party showing strong in rural Alberta and the New Democrats dominating in Edmonton, according to polls. The vote will take place on May 29.
2015 Notley vs 2023 Notley
Although the UCP has been through a greater whirlwind of change, the NDP has also evolved, says Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary.
“They’re much stronger. They’ve got obviously four years of government experience. Notley is the first premier to lose and then run again,” Bratt said in an interview.
“She’s got 10 former cabinet ministers in her caucus, and they’ve attracted a much stronger slate of candidates in 2023 than 2015. And so the NDP is a very different party.”
He says the NDP today is more similar to the “old Alberta Liberals” than the “old Alberta NDP,” and that could be due to different factors, “whether that’s the discipline of power, whether that’s a moderating effect, whether that’s just Notley herself.”
Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley addresses supporters as she kicks off her campaign for the provincial election in Calgary on May 1, 2023. (The Canadian Press/Colette Derworiz)
The provincial NDP in Alberta can’t afford to be as openly opposed to the fossil fuel sector as its federal counterpart in a province that’s dependent on the sector for jobs.
While in government, Notley advocated for pipelines, and as the opposition, most recently rejected the federal government’s “Just Transition” plan. But as the Liberal government in Ottawa imposes ever-expanding climate change policies, the UCP’s staunch opposition to them under Smith in the name of Alberta sovereignty has stood out prominently in the lead-up to the election, compared to the NDP’s endorsement of more regulation, including the carbon tax, under Notley.
Smith UCP vs Kenney UCP
Standing up to Ottawa was a major part of the Kenney UCP during the 2019 election and while in government, but Smith stepped that up while campaigning to become party leader, championing the Sovereignty Act—which was opposed by Kenney—and implementing it after becoming premier.
Since taking office, there have been more opportunities for Smith’s UCP to voice opposition to federal policies, as Ottawa expands its gun control legislation and energy sector transformation policies.
With a new leader opposed to restrictive COVID policies, the UCP is also more free from the baggage the party carried for implementing lockdowns and vaccine passports during the pandemic.
UCP Leader Danielle Smith (L) arrives to make an election campaign announcement in Calgary, Alta., on May 1, 2023. (The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh)
Marco Navarro-Génie, president of the Haultain Institute think tank, says that for many in the province, the Kenney UCP government’s key accomplishments were pushing for more fiscal restraint and red-tape cutting initiatives, standing up for Alberta’s oil and gas sector, and fighting addiction with treatment-based approaches.
He says the Smith UCP has kept the pace on those fronts while tilting more to the centre ahead of the election, as parties generally do during general elections.
“What has changed, I think, with the new arrival is a bit of the culture inside the party. The expectations of the rank and file is perhaps a bit more libertarian than it was before,” he said in an interview.
Fiscal Approach
Conservatives are traditionally known for fiscal restraint, but the UCP’s spring budgetincreases spending by $2.6 billion in 2023–24 over the previous year on health care, education, and infrastructure, among other categories, while projecting a $2.4 billion surplus.
The governing party’s recent commitment of $330 million for a new $1.22 billion hockey arena in Calgary—the key battleground of the election—was met with opposition from the grassroots opposed to using taxpayer money for such projects.
UCP Finance Minister Travis Toews has pledged to keep the debt-to-GDP ratio under 30 percent, at 10.2 percent in 2023–24. His government paid down the provincial debt by $13.4 billion in 2022–2023 and plans to pay down another $1.4 billion in 2023–2024.
The NDP has enlisted former Alberta Treasury Board chief economist Todd Hirsch to prepare a report on how to approach fiscal policy. The plan calls for a fixed-dollar amount (adjusted for inflation) of non-renewable resource revenues to go to base budgetary purposes.
The strategy says that in years when total revenues and resource income exceeds expenditures, a fixed formula should be made for how surplus dollars would be allocated to debt repayment, savings, and capital investments in physical assets. It also says the government would not allow a net debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 30 percent.
There are stark differences between the two parties when it comes to business taxes. The NDP raised the province’s corporate tax rate from 10 to 12 percent shortly after taking power, but the UCP reversed this in stages until it reached its current 8 percent rate on July 1, 2020. The next lowest provincial rate is Quebec’s at 11.5 percent.
Smith has promised not to raise any taxes in Alberta without a referendum, while the NDP only pledges to freeze personal income taxes.
Unions
In 2015, Notley’s government introduced Bill 6, the Enhanced Protection for Farm and Ranch Workers Act. The widely protested bill placed new regulations on the province’s 43,000 farms and ranches. Farmers were required to pay workers’ compensation dues whenever they contracted outside help, and Occupational Health and Safety was authorized to investigate and issue stop-work orders where working conditions were unsafe.
Asked in late April if the NDP would resurrect the legislation, Notley replied, “We will be looking at it.”
The NDP also wants a community benefits agreement regime for construction projects in Alberta, patterned after legislation in British Columbia. The Alberta Construction Association wrote Notley expressing its disapproval. They allege that the B.C. model is “a grossly coercive program aimed at giving select B.C. Building Trades Unions a monopoly over large parts of the province’s multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects.”
“Companies wishing to do work on these projects must do so using exclusively Building Trades Union (BTU) labour and terms, regardless of which labour model they are affiliated with,” the association wrote.
Barry Cooper, political science professor at the University of Calgary, said Notley’s response doesn’t surprise him.
“That doesn’t say that she’s evolved her understanding of how to get along with business in this province,” Cooper said in an interview. “She’s still the same kind of soft socialist with a really nice warm spot in her heart for unions.”
Health Care
Health care ranks among the top issues for voters, and both parties are calling for health-care innovations to address the health system crisis. Smith’s previous ideas supporting the privatization of some services back in 2022 have been swept aside with her recent “guarantee” thatno Albertan will have to pay for health care.
Smith, who dismantled the Alberta Health Services board (AHS) after assuming power to enable quick action, has promised relief for overburdened health-care workers. She further highlighted the negative impact of COVID-19 policies that forced thousands of workers to lose their jobs in every health sector across Canada rather than submit to vaccine mandates. About 750 health workers have been hired back since the government directed the AHS to end vaccine mandates.
The NDP has announced a plan to connect one million Albertans with what it calls Family Health Teams, where doctors will work closely with other health professionals such as mental health therapists and midwives. They promised$150 million a year to hire 1,500 health-care professionals and launch the largest health-worker recruitment campaign in Alberta’s history.
Policing
Policing is set to become a polarizing issue in the Alberta election. The NDP is promising to fight crime by hiring more police and support workers. At the same time, the party has tried to soften criticism of six NDP candidates who madeanti-police statements and talked about defunding the police. The NDP said on Twitter that its public safety plan invests three times more for support workers and policing than the UCP’s plan.
The UCP is spending millions on mental health and addiction issues in both Calgary and Edmonton—which it identifies as a both a policing issue and an urgent social and mental health crisis.
Plans include six recovery communities, one of which already opened in Red Deer, and another to be built for the Enoch Cree Nation, which will provide 75 beds. Among some of the money earmarked is $187 million for Edmonton task forces.
The UCP has brought in more civilian oversight over the RCMP in rural communities and established an independent commission to investigate complaints against the police. While the party has talked about replacing the RCMP with a provincial police force, the issue has been put on the back burner for now.
