Almost Half of African Nations Abstain From Taking Sides in Russia-Ukraine War

Russian and Central African Republic flags are waved by demonstrators gathered in Bangui on March 5, 2022 during a rally in support of Russia. (Photo by Carol Valade/AFP via Getty Images)

A large number of African nations have abstained from taking a side on the issue of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Just 28 out of the 54 African countries represented in the United Nations voted in favor of the UN March 2, 2022, resolution to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Of the 35 countries that voted to abstain, 17 were African—including Algeria, Angola, and South Africa, while eight others, including Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Morocco, did not submit a vote.

Eritrea was the lone African country that voted against the resolution, joining Belarus, North Korea, Russia, and Syria. Over 81 percent of non-African countries voted in favor of the resolution.

South-Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa (R) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) attend the first plenary session as part of the 2019 Russia-Africa Summit at the Sirius Park of Science and Art in Sochi, Russia, on Oct. 24, 2019. (Chirikov/AFP via Getty Images)

“African states are not blind to the fact that Ukraine is a victim of a geopolitical war,” according to David Otto, director of counterterrorism for the Geneva Centre of African Security and Strategic Studies.

“Some African states that decided to either abstain or vote against the UN resolution did so in respect of their sovereign interest vis-a-vis Russia and NATO allies.

But these differential positions taken by African states are a bigger indicator of a move away from a unipolar to a multi-polar geopolitical system with Russia-China and the West competing over spheres of interest in Africa,” Otto told The Epoch Times in a text.

“This is a new and challenging geopolitical situation never experienced in post-colonial Africa. It’s the new wind of change for Africa as far as the West and East are concerned—this time, African states are slowly but steadily calling the geopolitical shots.”

Professor Adebayo Olukoshi of Wits School of Governance in Johannesburg, South Africa, believes the ideal choice by African countries would have been total abstention during the UN vote.

“The real option before Africa was neither one of supporting nor opposing the resolution but rather ensuring not to get caught up in big power rivalries which, historically, only cost the continent dearly,” Adebayo told The Epoch Times.

“During the Cold War era, the major rivals reduced Africa to a playground for fighting proxy wars whose consequences on human life, peace, stability, and progress were adverse,” he said.

“As a new Cold War is taking shape, Africa must learn the lesson of history and refuse to be corralled by the rival powers into taking sides in conflicts that are primarily about each side seeking to advance what they consider to be their strategic and global geo-political interests.”

Russia's Legacy in Africa: South African Communist Party Protest in Johannesburg City Center, March 2019, (Courtesy SACP).

From establishing a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, through cultivating cosy ties with leaders of the mineral-rich Gulf of Guinea and Africa’s Sahel regions, to embedding the Wagner mercenary forces and military assets on the ground in support of its proxies, policy experts fear Russia is transforming Africa into a “theatre” for its geostrategic interests.

Russia’s engagements in Africa are often dismissed as opportunistic by some critics, but Joseph Siegle director of research of the Washington DC-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies says the dimensions of Russia’s growing interest in Africa must not be overlooked.

“Three priorities stand out: First, is a focus on North Africa. By establishing itself as a powerbroker in Libya on NATO’s southern flank Russia is gaining naval access to key ports and hydrocarbon reserves in the eastern Mediterranean,” Siegle told The Epoch Times.

“Parallel efforts to negotiate port access in the Red Sea would provide Russia leverage over maritime chokeholds in the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab strait through which 30 percent of all global container traffic passes.”

“Second, is the objective of being seen as a Great Power whose interests must be considered in every region including Africa. By rapidly escalating its influence in Africa in recent years Russia has gained on outsized role on the continent given its meagre economic investments (amounting to less than 1 percent of foreign direct investment in Africa),” Siegle said.

“This is particularly the case in the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, Madagascar, and eastern Libya. Russia also has growing ties to South Sudan, Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Mozambique, Angola, Guinea, Zimbabwe, and Uganda.”

The third priority according to Siegle is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to usher in a “post-liberal international order that validates governance models other than democracy.”

“Africa’s military juntas and authoritarian leaders have provided an easy entry point for Moscow on the continent,” he told The Epoch Times, adding “These African regimes, in turn, are propped up by Russia’s political support,” Siegle said.

“With its 54 representatives at the United Nations, Africa is an important region for shaping narratives of global norms and avoiding Russian isolation. Moving away from a rules-based order where legitimacy is derived from citizens and human rights are upheld naturally plays to Russia’s advantage.

“Toward this end Russian disinformation has been very active in Africa at smearing the value of democracy.”

Agenda For Survival

With no end in sight for the war in Ukraine there are fears that Africa could potentially become a source of regular economic and military replenishment for the Kremlin when such resources start to strain as long as the war may last.

It is also widely speculated that some African states stand at a strategic position to leverage on the challenges faced by the West and East over Ukraine-leveraging on economic and diplomatic interest.

Otto of the Geneva Centre of African Security and Strategic Studies believes: “Russia cannot survive in a political vacuum without key allies to turn to for political, fiscal, diplomatic and economic support—Africa is top of their agenda for survival.”

“Russia-Africa relations was cemented during the 2019 Russia-Africa summit. Faced with severe economic and diplomatic sanctions over Ukraine and pressure from the West, Moscow will expect friendly African nations to pay her back by providing Russia with at least a survival channel from unfriendly nations—even if that means remaining neutral,” he told The Epoch Times.

The United States has recently contemplated reducing missions battling distant terrorist groups in Africa and to instead refocus on confronting so-called Great Powers like Russia and China so as to exert its economic and security goals on the continent.

Reshuffling of Power

Olukoshi doubts the United States’ wherewithal to stop the global reshuffling of power.

“China as a major economic actor, for example, is locked in a major competition for overall dominance with the United States and its allies,” he told The Epoch Times.

“Militarily, China and Russia have been involved in major upgrades of capacity as to be able to project power on a global scale.”

“The United States may try to slow the process of the global reshuffling of power and even seek to dissuade African countries from entering into the orbit of the re-emerging powers in the global East, but the forces underlying the global shift we are witnessing are structural in nature,” Olukoshi said.

Russia thus still sees Africa as the only remaining continental sphere of influence to contest and challenge Western presence by exploiting colonial history and the vulnerability of diverse leadership policies.

“The Russia strategy is to provide Africa with a better choice—focusing on equitable trade, mutual respect, security partnership and a policy of non-interference into domestic affairs of African states,” Otto said.

“Kremlin’s interest in Africa is strictly geopolitical—as NATO and US allies swallow former Soviet Union states into NATO and EU membership, Russia is picking their pockets in Africa—especially in the Sahel and central Africa—winning over states formerly aligned to the West using soft power.”

“Russia has entered the race for Africa and it is gradually gaining geopolitical speed,” Otto said.