Alberta Poised to Have a Majority Government After May 29 Election

The Alberta legislature in a file photo. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

Whether it is Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) in power, or Rachel Notley’s New Democrat Party (NDP) at the helm of the province, it seems Alberta is poised to have another majority government after the May 29 election, according to a summary of electoral projections.

In the 2019 election, Alberta voters went to the polls and gave 63 seats to the UCP and 24 seats to the NDP. This time around, polls don’t project any seat possibilities for parties other than the two front-runners.

The Green Party has a slate of 31 candidates, while the Alberta Party is offering 18, and the Liberal Party is running 12—but has said it hopes to have 22 before May 11, the deadline for nominations.

Smaller political parties have also put forward nominated candidates and registered with Elections Alberta, including the Independence Party of Alberta (TIP) with seven candidates, and the Advantage Party of Alberta (APA) and Communist Party (CP-A) with three candidates each. The Wildrose Independence Party (WIPA) is running two candidates, while the Buffalo Party (BPA), the Pro-Life Political Association (PAPA), and the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition (WLC) are each running one candidate.

Polling aggregate website 338Canada, operated by P.J. Fournier, a professor of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal, summarizes electoral projections by all major polling companies, ranking them on the accuracy of their predictions in each election, going back as far as 2018. As of May 2, projections show no seat possibilities for the smaller parties.

Parties

The Alberta Party has announced a campaign platform that includes expansion of primary care networks for Albertans, and like the NDP, research of “innovative care practices.” The leader of the party, Barry Morishita, was born in Alberta and lives in Brooks. He is a third-generation Japanese Canadian and said one of his goals is “purposefully ending systemic racism and discrimination.” He was elected as leader on Sept. 1, 2021.

The party was previously led by Stephen Mandel, a former Edmonton mayor and a former minister of health under the Progressive Conservative government of Jim Prentice. He didn’t win the seat in his riding in the 2019 election.

The Alberta Liberal Party, led by Calgary lawyer John Roggeveen, has put forward 12 candidates and hopes to break back into the legislature after being crowded out in the last election, with at least one seat. In 2019, the party put forward 87 candidates.

“We don’t have the resources that the UCP or the NDP have,” Roggeveen told CBC on May 3. “No question we’ve been at a low ebb … up until the last election we had at least one member in the legislature and now we don’t.”

The last time the Liberals had an MLA in the legislature was in 2019 with Dr. David Swann, who chose not to run for reelection. The next elected Liberal Party leader was David Khan, until he lost his Calgary-Mountain View seat.

The Green Party leader, Jordan Wilkie, who works as an Edmonton city firefighter, is focused on a platform of climate change and poverty.

Wilkie, running for a seat in Edmonton-Rutherford, said on April 8 he would be taking an unpaid leave from his firefighting job to campaign full-time.

The Green Party has released its platform, promising to “alleviate poverty through universal basic income,” and pledged to expand health care to include dental benefits, physiotherapy, pharmacare, and mental health benefits.