Canada’s aging population is going to be a key demographic issue as baby boomers get older and mothers give birth to fewer babies, according to a new report by the Institute of Marriage and Family Canada.
The replacement fertility rate—the number of children needed to be born to each woman to maintain the population level—in developed countries is 2.1. The last time Canada reached this rate was in 1971. Canada’s fertility rate in 2010 was 1.63.
“Achieving replacement from a fertility rate of 1.63 would mean 109,000 additional babies for that year alone. If we look at Canada’s fertility rate since 2002, we would need approximately 1,022,971 babies to achieve replacement,” the report states.
Having an aging population would mean fewer taxpayers to pay for benefits such as health care and pensions. It would also mean a smaller workforce for the private sector and businesses would struggle to find talent.
“In 25 years, the first wave of baby boomers will be into their eighties. The last wave will be ready to retire. Between now and then our labour force will grow more slowly, while the number of retirees will skyrocket,” the report says.
The report also notes that surveys have shown many Canadians have indicated they want to have more children than they are having. A survey by World Values Survey found that Canadian families think the ideal number of children is 2.7, compared to the 1.63 children that Canadian families have in reality.
While the reasons for the declining number of children is complex, the report lists a number of factors including rising costs and limited finances, delayed childbirth, the birth control pill, and abortion.
The Institute of Marriage and Family Canada says the solution is not heavy government intervention, but the government can play a role in helping families with their finances by allowing more tax dollar saving through income-splitting measures.
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