4,000 Air Pollution Deaths Claim Behind ULEZ Expansion Is ‘Bad Science’: Report

A sign at the expanded boundary of London’s ULEZ pollution charge zone for older vehicles on Oct. 25, 2021. (Yui Mok/PA)

The science behind Sadiq Khan’s claim that thousands of people will die from toxic air to justify his ULEZ expansion is “very far from unequivocal,” a new report suggests.

New research is challenging the science and claims behind Sadiq Khan’s air pollution-cutting scheme ultra-low emission zone (ULEZ) that'll charge motorists by the day to drive.

The report (pdf), written by environmentalist critic Ben Pile, is a collaboration between the Together Declaration and Pile’s campaign group Climate Debate UK.

The report says that neither the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) nor the Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP) found evidence of a link between the air pollution scientific literature and the 4,000 deaths claim.

It also claimed historical data show radical improvements in air quality since the middle of the last century.

The Together Declaration, founded by Alan Miller, in 2021 in response to COVID-19 measures with the mission to “push back against the rapidly growing infringements on our rights and freedoms,” has increasingly been vocal on policies that restrict motorists and movement.

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan speaks after being re-elected in the London mayoral election, at the City Hall in London on May 8, 2021. (Henry Nicholls/Reuters)

ULEZ

The ULEZ is an area in which vehicles that do not meet certain emissions standards must pay a daily charge of £12.50 to drive or face fines.

The scheme currently covers the areas within London’s North and South Circular roads. It is set to expand to the whole of Greater London from Aug. 29, 2023, under plans from Mayor Sadiq Khan.

Promoting the expansion, Khan has said he was making the move because toxic air was “causing the premature death of more than 4,000 Londoners.”

The figure came from a TfL-commissioned study (pdf) published in January 2021 by Imperial College London (ICL)’s Environmental Research Group.

The Ultra Low Emission Zone is to expand to the North and South circulars. (Transport for London)

The study said the equivalent of between 3,600 to 4,100 deaths in Greater London in 2019 were “estimated to be attributable to human-made PM2.5 and NO2,” counting “all causes including respiratory, lung cancer, and cardiovascular deaths.”

It also calculated that a child born in London in 2013 would on average live 5 to 6 months longer with Khan’s air quality policies.

‘Intense Scientific Debate’

Pile told The Epoch Times by email that despite Sadiq Khan’s claims that 4,000 Londoners lose their lives to air pollution each year the science is “very far from unequivocal.”

“According to this ’statistical construct,' 4,000 deaths per year is equivalent to each Londoner seemingly losing 68 hours of life expectancy per year. While that may seem bad, life expectancy in the UK, including London, has been increasing at 73 *days* per year,” he said.

He added that the costs of the many anti-car policies being introduced across the UK need “to be considered against the alleged, and only trivial and hypothetical benefits.”

Pile also said that depriving people of mobility “will have serious economic consequences.”

“And the far bigger driver of health outcomes than exposure to air pollution is income. An increase of post-housing cost income of £416 per year is associated with an increased healthy life expectancy of 219 days—a far greater benefit than even the total elimination of air pollution can produce,” he added.

Environmentalism skeptic Pile said that the “green agenda risks doing serious harm to people’s health and wealth.”

“Every investigation reveals green policies to be based in bad science such as Khan’s. Yet politicians, academia, and much of the media seem completely uninterested in subjecting any green ideology. Until the UK finds its way back to democracy, the public interest is not going to be served, and a great deal of harm is going to be done in the name of ‘public health’ and ’saving the planet,'” he added.

‘Politically Motivated’

A spokesperson for the Mayor of London told The Epoch Times by email: “The air quality data used by the Mayor comes from globally renowned experts at Imperial College London and is completely robust.

“Imperial College London carried out the most accurate scientific investigation into the awful human cost of air pollution in London, using methods accepted by Government and recommended by the Government’s own expert advisors (COMEAP: Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants),” he said.

He added that “many different scientific studies from renowned universities around the world have shown that air pollution increases the risk of getting lung cancer, heart disease, premature births, new cases of asthma, stunted lungs in children, and an increased chance of early death.”

“The ULEZ is proven to work and expanding it London-wide will lead to five million more Londoners being able to breathe cleaner air. Rather than engaging in legitimate discussion and debate about this air quality policy, it’s disappointing to see some opponents trying to mislead the public by seeking to call into question the scientific evidence,” the spokesperson said.

Lily Zhou contributed to this report.