Or, it could go to France’s current favorite, Thomas Voeckler, who leads Evans by 1:45. Thomas, who kept pace with the more famous contenders in Stage 14, didn’t respond well in Stage 16; but some riders are slow to get rolling again after a rest day.
Fränk Schleck is only another four seconds back; he could also end up atop the podium in Paris. He is not a great time trialer, but he can climb, and he has wanted to win for many years. Should Evans falter and if Voeckler is worn out, the older Schleck is waiting.
Andy Schleck is three minutes down, and he really hasn’t had good form all year. He hasn’t been able to keep up so far, and the hardest stages are yet to come. He could, however, help brother Fränk by softening up the opposition.
Alberto Contador, a three-time Tour winner, is 3:42 behind; surely too large a gap to bridge—or is it? Judging by the Spanish champion’s performance in Stage 16, he thinks he has a very good chance. Whatever his chances, he certainly hasn’t given up.
Cadel Evans: Strong All Along
Evans finished second in the 2008 Tour, and crashed out in 2010 while wearing yellow. So far Evans is the only GC contender who has not had a bad day yet; he has covered every attack by every contender. If he can keep his form through three more mountain stages, he will be perfectly poised to win the Stage 20 time trial and thus the Tour.
Thomas Voeckler: Can the Surprise Survive?
“When you only have two minutes on a rider like Cadel Evans in the overall, I have to be realistic,” Voeckler said after Stage Nine. “I know it’s impossible for me to keep the lead for 10 days like in 2004.” Yet, he will start Stage 17 as the race leader.
Thomas hung tough in Stage 12, rode with the best in Stage 14, and lost only a little time in Stage 16, after which he said, “I lost a lot of time on three favorites so that means that I’ve possibly reached my limit.” Possibly.
The Schleck Brothers: Not Their Year Again?
This year the Schlecks have had good and bad stages. Andy Schleck has looked tired in Stage 12, while Fränk looked strong in Stage 12 but couldn’t keep up in Stage 14. Fränk kept the pace in Stage 16, while Andy fell back.
Both Schlecks have time to make up, and neither of them have remarkable time-trialing skills. It seems that 2011 is once again not “The Year of the Schlecks.”
Alberto Contador: Can He Come Back?
Alberto Contador came into the 2011 Tour as the hands-down favorite. He won the Giro d’Italia and looked good doing it. He had won the Tour two years running. He was well known for simply riding away from the opposition on the steepest, longest climbs, and making it look easy.
Then he got caught in crashes in Stage One—and in Stage Five—and Stage Nine. In between, he couldn’t catch Cadel Evans in Stage Four. Worse, he looked tired on climbs, and couldn’t keep up with the leaders on Stage 12. Had Superman eaten Kryptonite?
If so, he spat it out on the second rest day. Alberto Contador came back strong in stage 16, dropping all his opponents except Cadel Evans on the Col de Manse. Alberto Contador made it clear he is still here.
But still—he couldn’t crack Cadel. With only three mountain stages left, it seems unlikely that the Saxo-Bank rider has it in him to erase nearly two minutes to catch Evans, just to set up a head-to-head duel in the time trial.
But—two days ago no one guessed he had the form to drop Voeckler and the Schlecks.
Whoever wins, this will not be a dull final week of the Tour.
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