Why German Elections Matter—Even if Nothing Changes

Germany is the de facto leader of Europe and will most likely play an increasingly important role on the world stage in the years to come.
Why German Elections Matter—Even if Nothing Changes
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. President Barack Obama arrive to pose for the family photo at the end of the G-20 summit on Sept. 6, 2013, in Saint Petersburg, Russia. (Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty Images)
Henry Stanek
9/14/2013
Updated:
9/14/2013

Beyond the airtight confines of the Euro-pundit blogosphere, Germany’s upcoming parliamentary elections have not been arousing much interest. The likelihood of Angela Merkel’s re-election garners little doubt, even among her detractors, and the biggest question seems to be whether she will cut loose her current coalition partner.

However, Germany matters, and Merkel’s positions on the European Union, trade, and international security deserve to be more closely scrutinized. Germany is the de facto leader of Europe and will most likely play an increasingly important role on the world stage in the years to come.

Despite chronic economic and financial tumult that long ago brought down many of her homologues (think France’s Nicolas Sarkozy and Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi), Merkel has been able to maintain an impressive hold on public opinion and looks set to maintain her lead in the polls up to the parliamentary elections on Sept. 22.

Merkel ‘Über Alles’

Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) along with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), maintains a solid lead in the polls with around 40 percent of votes. The only question left for the pundits to debate now seems to be whether or not she will shake off her current coalition partner, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), which has proven to be a rather tumultuous bedfellow, or form a grand coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) party.

While she tends to keep a low profile beyond Europe’s borders, Germany’s chancellor has gained something of celebrity status as the first woman and the first Easterner to hold the position. Less flattering, she has also become a household name in Europe for her seeming intransigence during the eurocrisis. Greek newspapers have run cover photos portraying her as Hitler and the French media nicknamed her “Madame Non.” At home, however, the majority of Germans have come to appreciate her no-drama demeanor and the pragmatism that she has displayed.

So, with most observers resigned to the inevitable, the elections risk garnering little critical coverage in the outside media. They deserve much more scrutiny.

First, Germany has become the de facto leading power within the EU, playing a central role in decisions over the past few years that will have an important impact on the future trajectory of European integration. Beyond Europe, Germany, at least it is hoped by Washington, will also play an increasingly important role in global affairs.

Common Destiny

During the height of the eurocrisis, rampant speculation emerged that Germany had “turned its back” on Europe as political observers seemed to judge en masse that the country had become newly assertive in defending its national interests. The truth is that the Germans are as faithfully tied to the common destiny of the continent as to their uncompromising ethos of fiscal responsibility.

Willing or not, Germany has come to play a leading role in Europe, and Merkel, if re-elected, will have much to say on how integration is pursued over the next decade, be it on the eurocrisis, or other items on Europe’s political agenda, such as the upcoming Association Agreement with Ukraine.

During November’s Vilnius Summit, where European leaders are scheduled to sign the Association Agreements with Ukraine, Merkel will have a first chance to take a strong stance against Russia’s increasing heavy handedness in its backyard. It is largely Germany’s back-and-forth about going forward with the agreement that has thrown Ukraine’s fate into doubt.

Washington Prodding for More Responsibility

Even if there are no pressing issues on the political agenda between the two nations, there are a plethora of subjects on the back burner that will need to be covered with the new government. Postwar relations between the United States and Germany have historically been strong, although occasionally tumultuous no doubt.

Repairing German–American relations following German opposition to the war in Iraq in 2003 has been a top priority of Merkel, and the recent NSA scandal should do no more than ruffle some feathers in Berlin. However, American analysts are increasingly pointing to an expectations gap, between Germany’s global leadership and its economic heft.

As soon as a newly elected government is in place, the Obama administration will be anxious to hash out a few pressing issues. At the top of the agenda are the U.S.–EU agreement talks. The United States hopes to find in Germany a levelheaded partner that can help push the talks forward. Similarly, Obama will push Merkel to take a more active role in the eurocrisis. The United States hopes that Merkel will adopt a more nuanced approach to austerity measures in struggling economies.

Finally, Germany has made highly symbolic steps toward redefining its role in international security (for example, the use of German troops outside its territory), but the economic giant stubbornly remains a diplomatic dwarf, preferring to take a back seat in most diplomatic crises.

Henry Stanek is a Paris-based independent consultant specializing in EU affairs.

Henry is an independent EU affairs consultant based in Paris. He has worked extensively with EU institutions throughout his career. Past projects have given him a particularly rich knowledge of EU enlargement and the Internal Market. His thematic and geographical interests include transatlantic relations, economic policy and Eastern Europe, where he was born and raised.
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