According to those projections, if the United States avoids a second wave, unemployment is likely to remain at around 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020, around 8 points higher than it was at the end of 2019. If a second wave were to materialize, however, unemployment could rise by as much as 7 percent from its current level.
If the CCP virus “is kept under control and the economy restarts at good speed,” the OECD says that a considerable number of people who were temporarily laid off could be reabsorbed into the workforce.
The unemployment rate could continue to fall by as much as 4 percent between now and the end of the first quarter of 2021—if a second wave of the CCP virus does not materialize, the report said.
US Labor Statistics
Employment made a strong comeback in the leisure and hospitality industries, as well as in retail, education, health, and manufacturing, according to a July 2 report (pdf) by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.In June, the unemployment rate fell to 11.1 percent and total non-farm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million, the report said.
President Donald Trump called the employment gains “spectacular news for American workers and American families” at a press conference last week. Trump said the increase was the largest monthly jobs gain in the history of the United States, and that the U.S. economy was “roaring back.”
Record Unemployment, Record Re-employment
The OECD calculated that unemployment in the United States increased from a 50-year record low of 3.5 percent in February 2020 to 14.7 percent in April—a record since the OECD began its measurements in 1948. However, the U.S. economy has rebounded, the report shows, with unemployment declining to 11.1 percent in June.Across the United States, 26 states—making up around 70 percent of the population—are operating short-time compensation programs. At the federal level, the Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP, has provided small businesses with loans totaling more than 3 percent of GDP.
Furthermore, the Internal Revenue Service is offering Employee Retention Tax Credits to distressed companies with less than 100 employees. “For each employee, wages (including certain health plan costs) up to $10,000 can be counted to determine the amount of the 50 percent credit,” the agency says.
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