NEW YORK—U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 910,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to 11.34 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Dec. 8, a steeper decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 860,000 bpd.
Output next year is expected to slide by 240,000 bpd to 11.10 million bpd, a smaller decline compared to the previous forecast for a slide of 290,000 bpd.
U.S. shale production has languished as oil prices collapsed after the coronavirus pandemic eroded global demand. But as hopes for a widespread rollout of a vaccine rise, U.S. crude oil production has recovered from the 2 1/2-year lows touched in May.
Producers have begun to add drilling rigs and brought wells back online in response to the rebound in prices.
Still, the EIA said that U.S. crude oil production will decline to less than 11 million bpd in March 2021 mostly because of falling production in the lower 48 states, where declining production rates at existing wells are expected to outpace production from newly drilled wells in the coming months.
The agency also expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to decline 2.38 million bpd to 18.16 million bpd in 2020, unchanged from its previous forecast.
In 2021, U.S. oil demand is expected to climb by 1.63 million bpd to 19.79 million bpd, a smaller increase than its previous estimate for a rise of 1.69 million bpd.
Global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels is expected to average 92.4 million bpd for all of 2020, which is down by 8.8 million bpd from 2019, before increasing by 5.8 million bpd in 2021, the EIA said.
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